Good look at the trend in fully distributed network subs and ESPNs divergence. Entirety of the excess decline happened between FY 14 and FY 16, after the last round of carriage renewals, when they chose rate over packaging protection. Since 16, losses inline w/ rest of industry. 
This is pre TCF consolidation, but can see the impact on ESPN OI, in absolute terms and as a percent of Disney total OI.
We know that ESPN has changed tactics in recent renewals, opting for greater protection, although I still don't think this sub addition stat is right
and why ultimately there was an opportunity in Disney, because the time be bearish ESPN was 2014 and 2015, not 2017/2018 when people were writing about the death of ESPN
On the other hand, in 2015, some people had this reaction to the fateful August earnings call
which is funny, because apparently people way more important than me having that same reaction changed the course of the company
