Emmanuel Saez starts his keynote on “the Triumph of Injustice” at @NatlTax @InequalityHKS. Here are the key points from the talk. 
Older series done by @PikettyLeMonde and Saez only captured fiscal income— but that’s not all income going to people. Distributional national accounts improve the series by attributing all national income (including non taxed income) to different groups
Saez: “What the top 1% has gained, is almost exactly what the bottom 50% has lost.”
The Saez @gabriel_zucman average tax rates by income groups in 2018. Two things make these different (less progressive) from CBO numbers: 1) CBO doesn’t distribute state and local taxes (tend to be less progressive) 2) CBO adds the EITC. Saez says « tax means something. »
How are taxes distributed to different groups? Saez @gabriel_zucman believe assigning taxes by factor makes most sense. Labor taxes assigned to labor, consumption taxes to consumers, capital income taxes to owners (corporate tax to shareholders). Eg: Amazon’s tax falls on Bezos
Main difference to other agencies: how corporate tax is assigned. However when it comes to evaluating reforms, you want to think of economic incidence. “Analysis should separately present effects on pretax incomes, taxes paid, and welfare by income groups.”
To clarify: these are all points from the talk, I am not adding anything that comes from me and not discussing whether I agree or disagree with a given point at all. Tweeting because many people seemed Interested in hearing directly from Saez.
Why has tax progressivity declined in the US? Their hypothesis: “we let tax avoidance fester, then cut progressive taxes.”1) multinationals able to shift their profits —>TCJA 2017 slashed corporate taxes; 2) income tax avoided thanks to partnership shelters of early 80s—>TRA 86.
To clarify: these are all points from the talk, I am not adding anything that comes from me and not discussing whether I agree or disagree with a given point at all. Tweeting because many people seemed Interested in hearing directly from Saez.
Effects of @ewarren wealth tax plan under Saez @gabriel_zucman low evasion responses. Next, effects of same tax plan if @LHSummers and @NatashaRSarin higher evasion/avoidance responses occur.
Saez: “The tax economist should be a plumber. Any tax will have leaks but experts will find remedies.” He also says: “Depending on your ideology you’ll find reasons one way or the other.” #NTA2019 @NatlTax @wwwojtekk @jasonfurman @PikettyLeMonde
The tax economist as a plumber.
