Reading "Hydrogen is the New Oil", by @ThierryLepercq_, ex-SolaireDirect, ex-ENGIE.
Thread, I think ;)
Thread, I think ;)
@ThierryLepercq_ "Since solar and wind are quasi-infinite energy sources at ever decreasing costs, now close to zero, it is very likely that immense power will befall to those who control the industrial value chain of clean energy:
Enough to fundamentally reshuffle the global economic and geopolitical cards."
"China is the only country that has clearly identified the digital energy system in strategic terms, through what it calls the Internet of electricity: the architecture of decentralized and digitalized networks. ..
.. Only China has made a true political, technological, and industrial priority of it, in the framework of its Made in China 2025 program"
"The future giants of the Internet of electricity have every chance of stemming from Shenzhen or Palo Alto, bringing Europe's and other continents' energy utilities and their customers under submission, placing them in a very uncomfortable position regarding data ownership."
"Today's energy assets bear a striking similarity with the subprime mortgages of the 2000s. Starting with the belief, however ailing since 2008, that energy prices can only go up in the long term. This is a real house of cards."
"Rating agencies and audit firms rely on a small number of sources, in particular the IEA (for oil prices) and the Finnish firm Pöyry (for European wholesale electricity prices), who have gotten into the habit of anticipating substantial and continuous long term price rises."
"For example, the IEA predicts oil prices above 100 $/barrel by 2040, despite the non-conventional hydrocarbon boom; and Pöyry envisions electricity prices at 75 €/MWh, 3 times as high as the 2016 low, while solar energy is already down to 1/4 of that price in certain countries"
"What could be the trigger for financial markets to open their eyes? Some think it may come about when renewable energy growth will be so great the conventional energy demand will begin to drop. A few economists at Shell and BP see this arriving by 2025, in some scenarios."
"Coal and nuclear companies have already taken big hits. Oil companies face the growing divestment movement. Geopolitically, new players are waiting to grab the mantle of leadership of global energy markets at the expense of legacy players."
"Energy companies face pressures from two sides: the declining energy prices on their income, and competition from pension funds and insurance companies on cost of capital, driving down the cost of solar and wind to levels that some actors irrational or unsustainable."
"For the most exposed energy companies, it's time to disengage from energy production and supply, and to invest in heating, cooling, power distribution, and energy services.
The financial energy battle will be between technology and investments titans. And the backdrop is the age-old rivalry between States, looming again."
[So much for today. To be continued!]
"Most Western observers ignored one of the main points of China's President Xi Jinping's speech at the Communist Party Congress of 2017: his vision of the 'Chinese Dream' based on an 'ecological civilization' that would put China in the position of global leader by 2050."
"The word 'environment' was mentioned 89 times in his speech, versus 70 for 'economy'. Behind this language is a well structured technological and economic strategy, built around a program 'Made in China 2025' and an institution, the National Development and Reform Commission."
[Intermezzo. Can't resist the temptation to insert this 2011 tweet of mine here. I had a hunch then. ]
"Launched in 2015, 'Made in China 2025' aims at establishing Chinese leadership over 10 key technologies and industries, invluding advanced digital technologies, artificial intelligence, electricity production technologies, and autonomous electric vehicles."
"In fact, this leadership is already well underway in several of these industries, like solar PV (#1 producer and #1 market), lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles. Little or no long-term announcements, but much more binding short-term regulations."
"But the main frontier for the Chinese authorities is network digitalization, and the NDRC has made the electric Internet on of its strategic priorities, supported by companies as Huawei, Tencent and Envision.
Goal: centralize and treat exabytes of data in real time, so as to manage and guarantee the security of mainly renewable electric networks. The technological and political stakes are considerable."
"Since 2012, Chinese power companies (especially State Grid and China Three Gorges Corporation) have invested many billions of dollars in energy companies and infrastructures all over the world. If one puts together the pieces of the puzzle, a structured power strategy appears."
"The US has tightly linked its strategic destiny to oil and gas, thanks to the shale boom. China may fulfill its ambition of global political supremacy sooner than planned, by winning all the other battles."
"The big geopolitical question for Europe and the US in the decades to come will be the relationship they will establish with China. Energy will be at the center of this rapport."
[And that's it for today; to be continued! Wanna go faster, or read a more complete version? Buy the book ;!]
