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This chart from @TheEconomist is outstanding, so I thought I'd have a go at replicating it for every election in my lifetime. #ge2019data

economist.com/graphic-detail…
Not a very clear picture in 1987 vs 1983. Labour constituencies got more Laboury, but not much else.
1992 saw a big sweep towards Labour, but not enough to take power.
1997 = LABOUR APOCALYPSE
2001: nothing happened

Notable though that no constituency had >60% voting Conservative
2005 saw a seep away from Labour towards both the Conservatives and, in many places, the Lib Dems
A very big move Tory-wards in 2010
2015 = EVERYONE HATES THE LIB DEMS
2017: Some moves Labour-wards, and everyone still really hates the Lib Dems
We can also look at the trajectories of individual constituencies. Here's Sheffield Hallam - a bit of a wanderer.
All data from the fabulous House of Commons library researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi…

All plots drawn in R using {ggtern}

Happy to take requests for constituency plots!
Code here: github.com/VictimOfMaths/…
Realised there was a slight error in the 2015 map - some of the constituencies changing hands hadn't been highlighted.

So here us the full, corrected, version of that Lib Dem nightmare:
Found some bonus strangeness in the raw data which made the 1997 Labour apocalypse look a bit too apocalyptic. Here's the revised (although still fairly apocalyptic) picture:
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More from @VictimOfMaths see all

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Colin Angus
@VictimOfMaths
Today @NHS_HS have published the initial results of a study by @FrontierEcon looking at the impact of MUP on the alcohol industry

The main report is here healthscotland.scot/media/2810/fro…

A summary from NHS HS is here healthscotland.scot/media/2809/eva…

There's even a video
The study involved a series of case studies of alcohol retailers and producers.

They reported that prices had increased (obviously) and that consumers had generally responded by buying less, switching to smaller containers or trading up to 'better quality' products.
There was some evidence of market response in terms of stopping production/sales of some products, lowering ABVs or reducing pack sizes, but these were limited because most producers and retailers are international and Scotland is only a small proportion of their overall market.
Read 11 tweets
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Colin Angus
@VictimOfMaths
There's also some interesting data used in today's BMJ paper, which I thought it would be fun to look at a bit more.

The data comes from Kantar Worldpanel, which is a household panel of people who scan their food & drink receipts for things they bring home.
I compared the pre-MUP average figures for England and Scotland to 2017 off-trade data for England & Wales (combined) and Scotland from Nielsen, published by @MESAS_NHS healthscotland.scot/publications/m…
Here's the comparison of sales volumes.

Kantar has higher volumes of spirits and, to a lesser extent, wine, while Nielsen has higher volumes of beer (and, particularly in Scotland cider).
Read 6 tweets
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Colin Angus
@VictimOfMaths
All this talk of trends in alcohol consumption have reminded me that I hadn't looked at the latest UK consumption figures from the British Beer and Pub Association (@beerandpub). So here we go.

UK alcohol consumption 2000-2017:

THREAD/
Alcohol consumption peaked in 2004, following a rise that started in the late 1940s. It subsequently fell until 2013, since when it has been very slowly rising again (+3.2% between 2013-17).
If we look at the contribution of different types of alcohol to this trend, we can see that the peak and subsequent fall came about as beer consumption started falling in 2004, while wine consumption stopped increasing around the same time. Recent rises are more spirits-driven.
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW We have matched up county-level preferences for music genres with 2016 election results and have found the👏 key👏 data 👏 that capture the cultural currents that made Obama supporters flip to Donald Trump:

liking hard rock music.

THREAD.

economist.com/graphic-detail…
The data we have (from @VividSeats) is truly incredible. In every county, we have a record of the share of concert/etc ticket sales that fall into each genre in 2015/19. Here's that map (with each county scaled for population). Cities like rap/hip hop. Rural areas like country.
The music genre that most correlates with Republican vote share is, as you might expect, country music. A preference for "New Age" music (whatever that is) and Rock are also "red". Rap, Hip Hop & R&B, as mentioned, are "blue" music—as is liking alternative artists or Latin music.
Read 14 tweets
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Brett McGurk
@brett_mcgurk
“If you forgive the fox for stealing your chicken, it will steal your sheep, and then your cow.” That seems to be Trump’s approach towards Erdogan. It’s precisely how not to deal with an authoritarian leader. Rewards cede respect, and beget worse behavior. washingtonpost.com/world/national…
15 quick questions Trump may want to ask Erdogan, but won’t:

1. How exactly was Baghdadi living in a safe house with well-prepared tunnels less than 5km from your border?

2. Why was Baghdadi’s number two found in Jarabulus, a small town on your border that you fully control?
3. When you demanded that the U.S. move the SDF 30km from your border, did you know Baghdadi was living with his family <5km from your border?

4. Why do the areas of Syria that you claim to control or influence so often become permissive havens for AQ and/or ISIS leaders?
Read 14 tweets
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Aaron Lockhart
@arabbitorduck
I must say, @maziehirono is doing an amazing job testifying on behalf of Google in this hearing on Google censorship.
@maziehirono Seriously, @maziehirono is behaving as if she's Google's attorney or personal liaison. That is not appropriate for a member of the United States Senate.
@maziehirono I wonder how many times @maziehirono rehearsed this question regarding flagging videos of a murder victim with Google's Karan Bhatia. 🤔
Read 78 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
NEW from me: What if everyone had voted in 2016? We have quantified the left-leaning nature of non-voters and project that Hillary Clinton would be president today under such a scenario. But the findings run deeper than this headline. THREAD 1/14 economist.com/graphic-detail…
2. We first thought up this piece as a simple addition to our annual "World If" magazine supplement, but it soon ballooned into something larger. It seemed that nobody had suggested a satisfactory answer to the question of what would happen in US politics if everyone turned out.
3. We hypothesized that the US would drift more to the left under universal voting, but by how much? Though non-voters are more diverse & thus left-leaning than voters, there are plenty of working-class whites who don't turn out either. Our math says they make up ~50% of adults.
Read 15 tweets
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James Tozer
@J_CD_T
THREAD: After months of data scraping and number crunching, this week we’ve published an analysis of whether @Google's news algorithm displays political bias. (1/25) economist.com/graphic-detail…
.@realDonaldTrump has often claimed that the search engine discriminates against right-leaning publications, because so many of the results for searches about "Trump" come from @nytimes and @CNN. (2/25)
To test whether he was right, we created a computer program that could collect the first page of results on Google's news tab (within its main search engine) for any keyword on any day. (3/25) google.com/search?q=trump…
Read 25 tweets
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Anshel Pfeffer
@AnshelPfeffer
At Likud HQ as exit polls come in
So far early exit polls have Gantz ahead in three of them and tied in one other. At least in one poll (ch.12) Gantz is leading by 4 seats and the 2 blocs 60-60. According to ch.13 tie and right-wing with 66 seats. Widely disparate results. But not a great night for Bibi so far.
So far the pollsters are losing. To be fair, it is a nightmarish election to call with 2 parties running neck-and-neck and a dozen small parties, most of which are close to the threshold.
Read 43 tweets

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