Thread by @VictimOfMaths

Today @NHS_HS have published the initial results of a study by @FrontierEcon looking at the impact of MUP on the alcohol industry

The main report is here healthscotland.scot/media/2810/fro…

A summary from NHS HS is here healthscotland.scot/media/2809/eva…

There's even a video

https://twitter.com/NHS_HS/status/1179318338654220300?s=20

The study involved a series of case studies of alcohol retailers and producers.

They reported that prices had increased (obviously) and that consumers had generally responded by buying less, switching to smaller containers or trading up to 'better quality' products.

There was some evidence of market response in terms of stopping production/sales of some products, lowering ABVs or reducing pack sizes, but these were limited because most producers and retailers are international and Scotland is only a small proportion of their overall market.

They found some evidence of increased profits for wholesalers, but no evidence of this translating into price cuts on non-alcoholic products.

They didn't find any evidence of a negative impact of MUP on pubs and bars.

Interestingly they didn't find much evidence to support that the fall in the price differential between supermarkets and convenience stores had caused people to switch to smaller retailers. This is superficially at odds with what @RetailDataP have reported retaildata.co.uk/news-updates/s…

The interviews highlighted that there are several long-term trends in the industry such as premiumisation and the growth of low- and no-alcohol beers as well as one-off events such as the World Cup in 2018 which make separating out the effect of MUP on industry tricky.

(obviously all of these are also confounding factors in assessing the impact of MUP on consumer behaviour and health)

Overall, the industry reported that falling sales volume had largely been offset by increased sales prices post-MUP. While profits may have fallen slightly there were no reports of job losses, store closures or reduced investment in the industry.

@FrontierEcon also interviewed 10 retailers on either side of the English/Scottish border to explore whether they had seen or been affected by a rise in cross-border purchasing.

They found limited evidence of small-scale cross-border shopping.

But this was hard to separate from a general decrease in sales in Scotland post-MUP and the fact that many people living near the border cross it regularly as part of their daily lives and may well have been shopping in England before MUP came in.

tl;dr MUP doesn't seem to have had a particularly negative impact on producers or retailers in Scotland.

This is in line with what I'd have expected, but it's good to have the evidence.