Thread by @trengriffin

Simba: "Lured?"

Mufasa: "Gross subscriber additions must be greater than net subscriber additions given churn."

Simba: "A business must grow to not shrink?"

Mufasa: "The math is unavoidable my son. Churn is an embedded aspect of the Circle of Life."

news.google.com/articles/CBMia…

Zazu: "Cowen analyst still expects Netflix to hit or exceed its fourth-quarter forecast of 7.6M subscriber additions." Blackledge wrote, "assuming a portion would have churned regardless of Disney+'s launch; incremental churn appears manageable."

Mufasa: "Iger will be amused."

Rafiiki: "About one-third of Disney Plus’ U.S. customers — or 8 million as of the end of November — are on one-year-free offer from Verizon for certain customers, while the remaining 66% are on paid plans, Cowen’s analysts estimated." news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…

Simba: "Will churn of Disney+ customer acquired via the Verizon free offer churn at a higher rate?"

Mufasa: "Customers that aren't acquired organically will churn at a higher rate."

Simba: "Organically?"

Mufasa: "Acquired via word of mouth. Nothing to do with processed food."

Simba: "What do you think of these survey based net addition and churn forecasts?

Zazu: "What you get depends on your assumptions, any sample bias etc. Margin of error is like hyenas- a constant danger."

Mufasa: "Use a margin of safety based approach to guard against mistakes."

Simba: "How many Disney+ users acquired through the Verizon offer will churn at the end of the free period?

Mufasa: "That depends on customer engagement with the service."

Simba: "How do you measure that?"

Mufasa: "That's what data scientists do and why they're in demand."

Zazu: "Customer engagement doesn't happen by accident. A growth team must measure, understand and improve the flow of customers in and out of the product and business."

Rafiki: "Once you understand core value you can create different loops revealing that core value repeatedly."