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1/ Goldman suggests investors do what Charlie Munger says they should not do:

"Over short and intermediate investment horizons, the key driver of Growth vs. Value performance is the macroeconomic environment and its impact on investor risk sentiment."

barrons.com/articles/bet-o…
2/ Anti-Munger advice!

"Focus on stocks with the highest estimated risk-adjusted return over the next year defined by their Sharpe Ratios. It’s calculated by dividing the expected return on an investment in excess of the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of that return."
3/ Keynesian beauty contest! More inverse Charlie Munger:

"Investors are more willing to go for stocks with greater cyclicality, slower growth, or recent price declines when they’re feeling optimistic."

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian…

Closet indexing would add to the contra style!
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
25iQuiz: Is the incremental cost of making these xiao long bao (aka soup dumplings) in public view in high cost real estate a marketing cost that belongs below the gross margin line? How much of the cost is COGS that belongs above the gross margin line? Does it matter?
How much of the cost of making Beecher's cheese in public view in high cost real estate a marketing cost? Is rent partially customer acquisition cost (CAC) in some businesses that is a substitute for other forms of paid marketing?
The actual original Starbucks (not another one you may have visited) was located in a corner storefront in the old Harbor Heights Hotel at 2000 Western Avenue, just north of the Pike Place Market. Rent was $137.50. The building is now gone. historylink.org/File/20292
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
No. Investors started focusing on future free cash flow, cash in the bank and positive unit economics. The actual dollar amount of cash and positive lifetime value per unit of production.

You can't spend profit. You can cash.

"Cash is a fact. Profit is an opinion" Al Rappaport
"Accounting consequences don't influence our operating or capital-allocation decisions. When acquisition costs are similar we much prefer to purchase $2 of earnings not reportable by us under standard accounting principles than to purchase $1 of earnings that is reportable." WB
"In the aggregate and over time, we expect the unreported earnings to be fully reflected in our intrinsic business value through capital gains. Intrinsic value is discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life." berkshirehathaway.com/ownman.pdf
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
25iQuiz: What was a disruptive innovation in 2019 as defined by Christensen:

“An innovation that is disruptive allows a whole new population of consumers access to a product or service that was historically only accessible to consumers with a lot of money or a lot of skill.”
Chris Dixon: "A product doesn’t have to be disruptive to be valuable. Products that are useful from day one and continue being useful long term. When startups build useful sustaining technologies, they are often quickly acquired or copied by incumbents." cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the…
Jim Clark: "Microsoft was founded the same year as Silicon Graphics and they both went public in 1986. I had the experience of my own foolhardy opinion of the PC in those days — that it was a ‘toy’ unworthy of the attention of real computer scientists.”
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Ahcumfaegovan
@bobmcphail
Further to my slot on the @ibroxrocks flagship podcast tonight, here is my mega thread take on the recent accounts, purely my opinion and happy to be corrected….. first things first, have a read at our manager’s notes on page 6 & tell me how much you love him.
Whilst the £11.3m loss attracts the headlines it’s important to contextualise – something that barely exists in Scottish media when it comes to Rangers’ finances. Dave King’s phrase “accelerated investment” is pivotal when reviewing
We are deliberately spending money we don’t create but provided by our investors to speed our return to the top & create long term sustainability.
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eric boroian
@eboroian
Some things that have helped me improve vs the traditional 'value investor' I was 15 years ago. Two categories: quality & contrarianism

On quality: spend more time on direction vs width of comp advantage...
Spend more time on differences in operating model (or business model) and nuanced patterns associated with high returns (example small % of customer costs but mission critical) vs general 'moats', ie spend more time on the actual operating intricacies
Spend more time researching on the ground & speaking to people in the field and less time behind a desk. People who interact operationally with a company often have perspective you can't get in documents. Stop looking for ‘single factors’…atypical returns result from confluence
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
Thread: #China’s Slowdown Deepens; Industrial Output Growth Falls to 17-1/2 Year Low theepochtimes.com/chinas-slowdow…
The slowdown in China’s economy deepened in August, with growth in industrial production at its weakest 17-1/2 years amid spreading pain from a trade war with the United States and softening domestic demand.
Retail sales and investment gauges worsened too, data released on Sept. 16 showed, reinforcing views that China is likely to cut some key interest rates this week for the first time in over three years to prevent a sharper slump in activity.
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John Quakes
@quakes99
1) On 25 July, Tribeca's Commodity Trading Specialist Guy Keller gave an excellent presentation outlining their #bullish #Investment case for #Uranium, expecting to increase their exposure to #U3O8 sector over rest of 2019 as #nuclear demand grows... asx.com.au/asxpdf/2019072…
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3) #Uranium will play an increasingly important role in global supply of clean, stable, #nuclear base-load power generation given today's focus on environmental improvement amid rising global demand for #CarbonFree low emissions #electricity...
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Abhishek Murarka 🐂💹
@abhymurarka
💪A thread on amazing Twitter threads 😍👇
In the process of revamping my #Twitter profile (dormant earlier), I have come to appreciate the wonderful underutilized platform it is!
Some threads contain crisp knowledge capsules that can help many. Starting 1 on such curated content
1. I largely rely on this: threadreaderapp.com to find content
2. What I wish to share is what coincides largely with my interests- #Learning, #Investing, #Behavioralpsychology (#mentalmodels, #bias, etc), #Businessbooks, Industry insights/case studies, Life experiences, etc
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 While it will be difficult to structure the order of content here, I will try to block threads by category (as noted above & more). Feel free to comment with any good thread that you would have come across. Cumulative learning always helps.
#vicariouslearning
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Alpha Seeker
@valueshadow
1/n Takeaways from the letters of Marathon Asset Management (UK based, > $50B AUM, value-driven)

Found these insights particularly valuable.
High profitability
a) loosens capital discipline in an industry
b) often leads to overconfidence among CEOs
Investors & CEOs end up making highly error-prone /demand/ projections
2/n
The Capital cycle turns Down as excess capacity becomes apparent & past demand forecasts are shown to have been overly optimistic.

➡️ Reduction in Investment & Contraction in industry supply paves the way for a return of profits.

3/n
Read 14 tweets

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