Getting, on WA and mentions, a lot of "Aren't you making too much of state results? When it comes to the LS, Modi will still win 2024" and suchlike. With some snide remarks thrown in, but never mind that.
Have you looked at the whole game board, though? +
Have you looked at the whole game board, though? +
February 1, you have to present a budget. Manufacturing down. GDP down. GST collections way below expected levels. The coffers are now so empty, the GoI is running on fumes. No money for populist sops, no money to chuck at big business. That is the first challenge. +
The states are going to demand their share of GST -- they need the money to run their states. And GoI has already said it has no money to pay the states. That is a volcano primed to explode -- and that is challenge number two. +
The BJP's usual solution is to light a fire and distract everyone, and the NRC was the weapon they were sharpening and readying for deployment. But each state that they lose is one more state going to resist the NRC -- and now that is around 45ths of the country. +
And it's not just the non-BJP/inimical states. Jagan just announced that there will be no NRC in AP. Coming on top of the BJP's allies saying no to this, it's a clear indication that state-level leaders are sensing the direction of the wind, and openly telling BJP to go jump. +
Not reported, because who is going to stick his neck out and write this, is the incidental fact that businesses are pleading hard times, and the flood of money flowing into the BJP coffers has slowed down in the last quarter or so. And it is only going to get worse. +
There is so much more to see, if you can shut out the noise -- but, bottom line? 2024 is a loooong way away, folks -- the BJP has a government to run for almost a full tenure, and a talent-deficit party facing multiple challenges is going to find the going rough. +
All of which is why Jharkhand results, relatively unimportant in itself, is one more domino that fell with a resounding clatter.
Like I said at the start -- try tuning out the noisemakers, and see the whole board.
Like I said at the start -- try tuning out the noisemakers, and see the whole board.
