Thread by @shaunjlawson

Not bugging me in the slightest.

The exit poll comes from a group of genuine experts who spend the day in a bunker, poring over all sorts of details they're receiving from polling stations. They do an absolutely sensational job... have done ever since the fiasco of 1992.

https://twitter.com/intothefuture5/status/1210206975067381762

Again, just to run through this conspiracy theory:

1. The exit polls are pretty much always right. Strangely, I can't recall anyone making this argument when it was right in 2017.

2. The Tories had been a long way ahead in the opinion polls ever since Johnson became leader... and especially after he announced his deal. That's why the lead grew through November.

3. Postal vote tallies being so high would seem odd... until you remember this was an election in mid-December, compared with a previous one in June.

Old people don't like miserable, wet, cold weather... but they do always vote in massive numbers. As they did this year: by post.

4. Social media is simply not a psephological base for anything at all. And why? Several reasons:

- Because Twitter and Facebook's algorithms draw users to people who share their views, and filter out the rest. There's a whole other world out there which they don't see.

- Because most people, unlike those on here, just aren't political. At all. They pay very little attention; they do hear Tory soundbites (parroted by the media) during election campaigns... and they vote based on those.

I made several warnings during the campaign that any post-debate polls over Twitter, hailed by Labour supporters as 'proof' that Corbyn was ahead and/or that YouGov was corrupt, were a nonsense. Because those polls had no weighting and no accurate sample sizes.

Those sample sizes have to allow for people who say they're going to vote, then don't (especially common among young people, sadly); and especially for the majority of the British public: who just aren't political.

5. Very consistently, polls have shown that around 40% or a bit more of the British public want Brexit at any cost. Why do people imagine Farage did his deal with Johnson? Another critical moment - because this confirmed the Tories as the party of Brexit, guaranteed 40% plus.

That's why Johnson's entire message was Brexit Brexit Brexit Brexit. He knew that all he had to do was get that message through, and he'd win. Sadly, Labour failed to counter it. Corbyn was culpable there, as were many others.

It is, having said all of this, worth reminding ourselves just WHY opinion polls so often accurately or closely predict the final outcome. I make no apologies for once more linking to this brilliant video by @MonaChalabi: it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

@MonaChalabi But more broadly: whenever people suffer something traumatic, they usually look around for simple explanations to assuage their pain. That's essentially why conspiracy theories are so often so powerful: because they confirm people's fears and simplistic views of the world.

@MonaChalabi But folks, with the utmost respect, gimme a break.

Corbyn faced:

- An implacably hostile media
- A campaign against him of never-ending lies and demonisation which reached unprecedented levels
- A horrifically biased BBC
- His own MPs treating him like a piece of dirt

@MonaChalabi - An opponent who's always been indulged by the media and has always, sadly, been popular with many
- Appalling personal ratings
- Horrendous ratings on economic competence
- Did terribly at the European and local elections
- Never did that well at any election except 2017 GE

@MonaChalabi - Couldn't get his message across on Brexit and seemed (that's the operative word: 'seemed') confused, in complete contrast to Johnson: who just lied his way through effortlessly
- 40% plus of the electorate wanting Brexit at any costs
- The Lib Dems playing saboteurs

@MonaChalabi - Despite all the many problems with the economy, there's not been a crash under the Tories. Yet.
- What seemed to the public like a 'new' government under a 'new' PM, while Corbyn seemed tired and stale
- Socialism hasn't been given a proper majority in the UK since 1966

@MonaChalabi - And an electoral system which is rigged beyond belief, distorts everything about our politics, and meant Labour would be doomed whatever it did on Brexit...

... And people are SURPRISED Labour only got 32%?! Please. The odds were never more stacked against any Labour leader.

@MonaChalabi Yes, the outcome was devastating. For the record, I accepted it within 60 seconds of the exit poll. I was dismayed but not all shocked. I'd known for months beforehand that so many people I know (friends, family, acquaintances) who needed to be voting Labour weren't voting Labour

@MonaChalabi That was my bellwether in 2015 and 2017 too. In 2015, practically none of them were. In 2017, almost all of them were.

I also detected clear, 2015-esque signs of panic in Labour's messaging over the final couple of weeks; and even equivocation among respected left commentators.

@MonaChalabi And so, sadly, it came to pass. I spent the whole campaign trying desperately to ignore my gut, trying to encourage, trying to enthuse... but it was an impossible ask for Labour. An insurmountable one, for all sorts of reasons.

There's no conspiracy, people. We lost. Simple.