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Here's a long but we hope pretty readable explainer of how our primary model works. Holy shit has this been a lot of work. fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-f…
In the end I suppose it's pointing out the obvious:
* Biden a frontrunner but not a favorite vs the field
* Bernie also looks good w/ his early-state polls
* Warren and Buttigieg still have a shot
* A contested convention is possible tho maybe less likely than people think
This does not yet account for the Monmouth NH poll. We'll of course be updating the model as new data comes in.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
What are the chances of a BrOkErEd CoNvEnTiOn*?

* More accurately described as a "contested convention".

fivethirtyeight.com/features/elect…
Our model says there's a 15% chance that there is *no pledged delegate majority* as of June 6 when voting finishes.

That's NOT the same thing as a contested convention, though.

Dirty little secret: Even pledged delegates aren't actually legally bound to vote for anyone! ^^^
However, I think our model may overestimate the chance candidates drop out and therefore UNDERESTIMATE the contested convention chance:

—Establishment candidates might stay in to stymie Sanders/Warren
—Sanders might want to run the whole race as in '16
—Bloomberg ↑ = chaos ↑
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
We now have LOTS of polls since the debate. Here's my analysis of what's going on*.

* Spoiler alert: It's unclear.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/elect…
National polls since the debate, although with a fair amount of variation, have mostly been good for Bernie.

State polls since the debate, although also with a fair amount of variation, have mostly been mediocre for Bernie.
All of these hypotheses are plausible and there's not really any way to differentiate them until we get more polling. Fortunately, more polling is likely coming soon.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'd certainly rather be in Bernie's position than Warren's, but the best argument for Warren is that she's basically tied with Sanders in Iowa and would likely get a larger bounce because expectations for her performance there are lower and a win would be seen as more surprising.
p.s. This phrasing sounds a bit casual ^^^, but empirically the best predictor of a bounce (and what our model uses to forecast bounces) is how a candidate finishes in a state relative to his or her national polls.
If you do take more subjective notions of "expectations" into account though: Bernie currently has a 44% chance of winning Iowa and Warren a 12% chance in prediction markets, which doesn't really square with the polling there showing the top 4 closely bunched together.
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Brooke Binkowski
@brooklynmarie
Holy shit.
Damn, it's open season on workers. southbendtribune.com/news/business/…
(That second story is from July)
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Toly Rinberg
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Here's your reminder that, 2 years under Trump, state-sponsored censorship of climate info is still ongoing and pervasive across fed agencies (@EPA, @StateDept, @Interior, @USDOT, …)

Check out @andmbergman & my @NYTopinion piece and examples in THREAD: nytimes.com/2017/11/22/opi…
In Oct 2018, @USDOT, which oversees transportation, one of the largest sectors contributing to anthropogenic U.S. GHG emissions, obfuscated climate info by removing its "Climate Change Clearinghouse" page, among several others

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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
Quite. In fact, what I learned from @FiveThirtyEight is that it basically didn't matter what position candidates took: they succeeded or failed with their party, given a district's lean 1/
Here's the article. There was no indication that progressive stances hurt, or moderate stances helped, candidates in R-leaning states or rural areas. 2/ fivethirtyeight.com/features/every…
But in media world, the story is always the same. If Republicans win, Dems need to move to the center. If Dems win ... well, here was Time's cover after the last Dem wave election 3/
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Megan Ranney MD MPH
@meganranney
One week ago, #thisisourlane exploded on Twitter. At the request of may, here's a tweetatorial to address some of the most common questions and answers about the epidemic of #gunviolence - why it matters to docs - and what we can do about it:
***Q1: What are the patterns of #gunviolence injury and death in the US? ***

A: 100 people die and 200 are injured each day across the US. Most deaths (~2/3) are suicide; these are mostly white middle-aged men from rural areas.
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Read 25 tweets
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Amanda Marcotte
@AmandaMarcotte
I see a lot of folks, once again, dismissing the polls entirely because they feel burned by 2016, when Clinton went in with higher odds.

This is why I wish more people played some kind of gambling game, not frequently, but on occasion. It really teaches you what odds are.
So, for instance, in craps, rolling a 7 is a 1 in 6 chance. That is lower than the odds given for Trump by FiveThirtyEight and at least one pollster tracked by the NY Times scoring system.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-f…

But 7 is also the most common roll in craps.
Trump’s win probability ranged from rolling a 12 on a single roll with 2 dice to rolling a 7.

It’s a smart bet, on a single roll, to bet against any number. But you’re not devastated if you lose, because there was always a chance. You don’t say the dice are liars.
Read 4 tweets
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Sahil Kapur
@sahilkapur
This myth needs to go away. National polls in 2016 weren't far off.

Final RCP average: Clinton+3.2
Actual result: Clinton+2.1
Don't let "yeah but 2016" become a blanket refutation of polls. National '16 polls were reasonably accurate. Various state polls (i.e. in FL/OH/IA) also showed a Trump edge; big miss was a bunch of Midwest polls (i.e. PA/MI/WI) failing to capture late-deciders breaking for Trump.
Here, via @NateSilver538's autopsy of 2016 polls, is some exit data. Midwestern voters who decided late broke ~bigly~ for Trump and arguably made him president.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-f…
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