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What are the chances of a BrOkErEd CoNvEnTiOn*?

* More accurately described as a "contested convention".

fivethirtyeight.com/features/elect…
Our model says there's a 15% chance that there is *no pledged delegate majority* as of June 6 when voting finishes.

That's NOT the same thing as a contested convention, though.

Dirty little secret: Even pledged delegates aren't actually legally bound to vote for anyone! ^^^
However, I think our model may overestimate the chance candidates drop out and therefore UNDERESTIMATE the contested convention chance:

—Establishment candidates might stay in to stymie Sanders/Warren
—Sanders might want to run the whole race as in '16
—Bloomberg ↑ = chaos ↑
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
There's no doubt she'd get some decent buzz with a 3rd place finish. But the track record of like Rubio/Kasich/Huntsman candidates who finish a distant 2nd or 3rd in IA or NH but aren't so strong nationally isn't actually very good!
Part of it is also whether a candidate is willing to be the 3rd wheel in a Biden-Sanders race. Bernie & Joe do well among noncollege voters, which might leave a 3rd candidate with a Kasich-like lane among college educated types. But that lane would be mostly as a spoiler...
...hoping to pick up enough delegates to have some leverage or be a compromise choice at a contested convention (not unlike what Bloomberg is trying to do).
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I don't know a ton about this pollster and as a new/unknown pollster without trendlines it didn't have ton of influence on our IA poll average. But I do think people are neglecting how close IA remains, both between the top 2 (Bernie/Biden) specifically and the top 4/5 overall.
Iowa winning odds per our model:
Sanders 2-1
Biden 2-1
Buttigieg 6-1
Warren 9-1
Klobuchar 40-1

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
I should note that our model is forecasting the *popular vote after realignment*, one of 3 ways that Iowa will report its vote.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
There are more state delegates per voter in rural counties, which could help candidates who are stronger in the rural parts of Iowa and hurt those whose voters are clustered in metro areas or college towns.
On balance, that seems like good news for Buttigieg, whose voters are seemingly the most dispersed throughout the state.
Keep in mind though that this only affects 1 of 3 ways that Iowa will report its vote, albeit the most traditional way (state delegate equivalents).
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Truth
@1foreverseeking
I've been reading the stories from Sid Blumenthal's son.

Is he still shilling for Hillary? Does this mean she could make a play for a brokered convention?

Something weird is going on here.
Hillary landed at Sundance 10 days before the Iowa Caucus, and keeps attacking Bernie.

Do we know if Hillary stills owns the DNC?
nypost.com/2020/01/26/hil…
Names!
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Robert Young Pelton
@RYP__
The Dersh gets caught short. Infighting and lack of communication before the OJ er...I mean... Trump trial is not a good sign. washingtonpost.com/politics/dersh…
Is it just me or does it seem like there a casting director and a list of selected "reality show moments" ready to be acted out? Will Roberts get fed up and bring that "Wilford Brimley Moment"? msnbc.com/the-beat-with-…
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
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Gill
@gillsterein
This is important. Don't buy into the narrative that we somehow "need" Elizabeth Warren in a brokered convention.

The goal is defeat her early in IA and NH so that Bernie can begin consolidating support as the sole progressive alternative to Joe Biden.
We know these narratives about "needing Warren" to "combine delegates" are dubious bc Bernie's senior adviser, Jeff Weaver recently said the Sanders campaign anticipates winning on the first ballot.

And Weaver's logic checks out. Read the article.
In fact, delegate analysts paying attention know:

1. The 15% threshold has built-in winnowing effect

2. A brokered convention is extremely rare and highly unlikely

3. Bandwagon effect, voters prioritize candidates capable of winning states and delegates
Read 6 tweets
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Lawrence Glickman
@LarryGlickman
Look who’s talking. The Democratic Party is much more diverse ideologically than the Republicans, which once had a vibrant moderate wing, but no longer does. To take one example, in 2009 the House passed the Stimulus Package, which rescued the economy, without a single GOP vote.
As @perrybaconjr has shown, by most measures the GOP is “far more conservative than it used to be.”
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-r…
See also this excellent book by @NormOrnstein and Thomas E. Mann on the extremism of the modern GOP.
amazon.com/Even-Worse-Tha…
Read 8 tweets
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Jason Keeney
@beingjkeeney
It’s time we all learn the Truth.

The Truth isn’t always what you want it to be, it’s not something you just invent out of thin air.

The Truth is the foundation that we mere mortals must build our lives on, if not then we are doomed to failure, that’s why addicts live such ...
... a hard life. You can’t build a life on a lie and you can’t build a society on a lie.

I will attempt to lay out the Truth as best as I can for everyone, some people will already know a lot of what I’m about to post, but I tried to build this so anyone can follow it.
There are a few things in here that even those of you who are well informed will not know.

Pay attention to the timing of how this all fits together, it was hard to lay this out as multiple things are happening simultaneously and we have to back up and run back through things ..
Read 204 tweets

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