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THREAD. 15 years ago, I wrote an article in @JoDemocracy called "Chinese Dreams, Persian Realities." muse.jhu.edu/article/188315…. Almost none of the theocracy's economic mismanagement has changed since then. Only democratic change can stop deepening economic catastrophe in Iran. 1/
To learn more about long-term Iranian economic, demographic, and environmental trends , check out @FSIStanford @StanfordISP Iran 2040 Project: iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040-proj… 2/
For a quick snapshot of Iranian economic trends, check out this "Iran in Charts" website: iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040-proj… 3/
See also this excellent paper on Iran's Large and Growing Financial Gap. iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040-proj… 4/
Or this paper on Governance and Development in Iran: iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040-proj… 5/
Or this paper on
The Scientific Output of Iran: Quantity, Quality, and Corruption: iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040-proj… 6/
Water is an especially challenging for Iran in the coming decades as this paper makes clear: iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040-proj… /7
For other papers from Stanford's Iran 2040 Project, see iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040-proj… /8 END THREAD
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Michael McFaul
@McFaul
There's no one path to democratic change. @kath_stoner & I edited a book on topic: "Fifteen case studies by scholars and practitioners demonstrate the synergy between domestic and international influences that can precipitate democratic transitions." amazon.com/Transitions-De… 1/
The relationship between international and domestic variables during moments of regime transition is complex. Sometimes, pressure helps democratic change. Sometimes not. Sometimes engagement with autocratic regimes helps democratic change. Sometimes not. 2/
Our volume also includes cases of failure -- that is, revolutionary moments that ended up not producing transitions to democracy. 3/
Read 3 tweets
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Michael McFaul
@McFaul
THREAD Trump embraced traditional, long standing US foreign policy objectives regarding Iran, but adopted a radically different strategy for seeking to achieving them. Judge the success of the strategy based on outcomes, not aspirations. 1/
"Compared to three years ago: we have no nuclear agreement with Iran, let alone a more comprehensive one; 2/
we have enabled greater Iranian influence in the region, especially in Syria and Iraq, not less;" 3/
Read 6 tweets
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Michael McFaul
@McFaul
THREAD "Iran was responsible for the deaths of at least 608 American troops in Iraq between 2003 and 2011, according to a newly revised casualty estimate produced by the Pentagon," several years before the JCPOA -- the Iran nuclear deal -- was signed! newsweek.com/iran-us-iraq-w… 1/
Please stop with this false revisionist history that the signing of the JCPOA unleashed a torrent of Iranian attacks against Americans. During the period between the signing of JCPOA and the end of Obama era, were there any Iranian attacks on Americans? I cant find any. 2/
If Im wrong, please post data/send links.
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THREAD- Domestic Terrorism has always been a big threat, and it’s a good thing that the media is finally using this language. Dealing with it will take all levels of government of civil society. /1 #domesticterrorism #domesticterrorist #domesticterrorismlaw
Terrorism is social and political activism using violence or credibly threatening it. It is designed to create mass fear, and often has massive financial and logistical support. /2 #terrorism #domesticterrorism
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