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1/ Does Goldman’s Marcus service have product/market fit?
Deposits from Marcus were $60B at the end of the quarter, increasing $24B through the full year 2019. Credit card loans were $2B at the most recent quarter-end, up from $1B in the third quarter. pymnts.com/earnings/2020/…
2/ “Goldman consumer bank its fledgling credit card business, contributes less than 3% of its overall revenues.” reuters.com/article/us-gol… "51% increase in credit loss provisions to $336M as retail loans soured." cnbc.com/2020/01/15/gol…
3/ “Only once proven your value hypothesis do you move on to your growth hypothesis. The value hypothesis defines the what, the who and the how. What are you going to build, who is desperate for it, and what is the business model you are going to use to deliver it?” Andy Rachleff
4/ Is Goldman's Marcus service at risk of scaling prematurely? Scaling prematurely can happen if a growth hypothesis is pursued before the value hypothesis is proven.

Is consumer banking a "go big or go home" market for a business like Goldman and optimal strategy is different?
5/ The only way you know if you have product/market fit is if you get word of mouth” Andy Rachleff

How would Goldman know if it has product/market fit with Marcus? How reliable is net promoter score (NPS)?

Are consumer and enterprise P/MF different? podcastnotes.org/2019/11/25/mik…
6/ Are there other quantitative approaches to proving product/market fit exists? How would you apply them to Goldman's Marcus?

“We view P/MF through 3 standard analyses:
•Growth Accounting
•Customer Cohorts
•Distribution of Product-Market Fit”
podcastnotes.org/2019/11/25/mik…
7/ Overall, Goldman spent 68 cents for every dollar of revenue it produced in 2019, up from 64 cents per dollar the prior year. Goldman spent roughly $700m on growth initiatives in 2019, before taxes. reuters.com/article/us-gol…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ My favorite Clayton (RIP) quote is about CREAM.

"Chang noted that banks don't accept deposits denominated in ratios. He reminded me there is a simpler way to account for finances: in whole dollars. After all, that is what banks accept ?— dollars."
deseret.com/2012/12/9/2044…
2/ "Chang suggested what is probably a better measure of profitability: tons of money. His dictum is more tons of money is better than less tons of money.

The focus on carefully calculated ratios might make sense when capital is scarce.. But today capital is not scarce."
3/ I wrote about Clayton's more famous disruptive innovation thesis here: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…. Like my 25iQ post, this bio/obituary from today also describes how his disruptive innovation theory is being misused: news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
A very tough business. "In November Moody’s estimated a lease-adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of more than 15 times over the coming 12 months 'as top-line growth is expected to remain elusive due to the highly competitive pricing and business environment.'" google.com/amp/s/www.wins…
This from an old pre bankruptcy s-1 gives a sense of what Fairway Market margins are: sec.gov/Archives/edgar… Hard, hard, hard. Occupancy costs = wholesale transfer pricing.
"Fairway’s business has suffered to the point that it had less than $1 million in cash on hand when it filed for bankruptcy, court records show." google.com/amp/s/nypost.c… Cash is oxygen for any business.
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ Netflix knows a lot about what its customers will pay a subscription fee to watch.

Google and Amazon know a lot about what streaming viewers buy more generally.

"In a fight between a bear and an alligator, it is the terrain which determines who wins.”google.com/amp/s/variety.…
"We think with our model that we’ll actually get to a larger revenue, larger profits [and] larger market cap because we don’t have exposure to something we’re strategically disadvantaged at, which is online advertising,” Hastings said. adexchanger.com/online-adverti…
3/ "US consumers subscribe to an average of 1.7 services, and only 5% take four services and 3% subscribe to five or more, according to Limelight's survey." "Quibi, a service will launch April 6 for $4.99 per month with ads and $7.99 for an ad-free tier." lightreading.com/video/quibi-fa…
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بــدر الفـوزان
@B_alfouzan
كيف تعرف انك وصلت لمرحلة
الـ product market fit ؟

هناك عدة مؤشرات لكن هالمرحلة عادةً
تكون واضحة اذا حدثت هذه الامور الثلاثة
اولاً : عملائك الحاليين يتعرفون بشكل واضح على قيمة المنتج ويدركونها بشكل جيد.

Existing users recognize your product’s value
ثانياً: يبدؤون عملائك بأخبار الاخرين عن تجربتهم الرائعة مع منتجك.

They tell others about their great experience with the product.
Read 6 tweets
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Francisco H. de Mello (Qulture.Rocks)
@franciscohmello
Product-market fit is one of the most (mis)used expressions in the startup world.

It's amazing how little agreement there is on what it really means.

A thread 🧐
The first searches for the term go back to 2005:
The first reference I found to the term goes back to 2005 as well, from a quote website. It attributes "it's all about product market fit" to @arachleff
Read 16 tweets
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Hiten Shah
@hnshah
Product/market fit (PMF) is the #1 topic on most startup people’s minds, especially in the early days.

This thread will have as much information about it as possible and will be continuously updated.
First things first...

What is product/market fit (PMF)?

“Product/market fit means being in a good market with a product that can satisfy that market.” @pmarca

This @holloway guide is a good place to start.

holloway.com/s/rvc-fundamen…
How do you measure product/market fit?

- Word of mouth and referrals
- Quantitatively via retention
- Qualitatively via surveys
- Unit economics and profitability
- Other forms of “fit”

Not in any particular order.
Read 15 tweets
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Fredrik Sandberg
@nyktofil
På förekommen anledning (så gårdagens och morgonens utbyten) tänker jag nu dra en lång tråd om det där med individuellt ansvar, kollektivt ansvar, samtyckte, respekt och sexuell integritet.
För att etablera rätt utgångspunkt för mitt teoretiserande kommer jag att prata lite om mig själv, och hur jag har handlat. Här kan det antagligen se ut som att jag framhäver mig själv som Hygglig Snubbe™, och som att jag förväntar mig ryggdunk för detta.
Så är inte fallet. De exempel jag kommer att lyfta är rimligen att se som minimi-nivån för anständighet, och därmed inget som förtjänar beröm. Om jag INTE hade agerat så som exemplen påvisar hade det varit värt klander.
Read 54 tweets
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⚡️Michael Dunworth⚡️
@MichaelDunwort1
Product/Market Fit - #DeFi v1.0 Really seems like v1 use-cases are taking shape beyond novelty value.

1/ Maxing out the techs potential takes time. Time allows for education/understanding, infrastructure, which results in discovery of new applications.
2/ The internet was a digital newspaper at the start. It's going to become more apparent that #DeFi is the digital 🗞️. Porting of what we know into the new technology. Innovation 10%, optimization 90%. Faster, cheaper, more accessible etc... Those %'s will swap sides in time.
3/ Newspaper. Quick reference to ease information consumption for varying types of audiences. Seemed a good base is porting that same framework to the "new internet technology"... News, Sports, Finance, Jobs, Horoscopes, Technology, etc... #redditSilverLevelDesignSkills
Read 9 tweets

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