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It seems like our model is more bullish on Sanders than the conventional wisdom right now, for basically 2 reasons

1) It's treating Iowa as much more of a win for Sanders than the CW seems to be doing
2) It doesn't really make any assumptions about Bernie having a "ceiling" etc.
I think there is some reason to be worried about 1, to the extent that perception can be reality when it comes to post-election bounces. We'll see, though. Within a few days, our model's assumptions about the post-IA bounce will be replaced by polling.
re: No 2, though, I think (post Trump/2016) I feel pretty good about not building too any assumptions into the model about candidates having ceilings. Especially given that the way you'd probably do that, favorability ratings, look reasonably good for Bernie anyway.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our model has been updated, although one needs to treat it with a lot of caution since it's making guesses about the reaction to NH that may or may not resemble reality.

The main takeaway is that the chances of "no majority" are up to 1 in 3. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
The model didn't love NH for Bernie—whom, I should say, it's been very high on—as he underperformed its projections there by a couple of points. Sanders also got a couple of mediocre polls today hadn't hit the model yet as we awaited NH results.
But it doesn't like anyone else's position either. It doesn't see why Klobuchar should get huge momentum out of a 3rd place finish, and she's at just 4% in national polls. It actually now has Bloomberg (who got a couple of good polls today) getting the 3rd-most delegates.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Decision Desk HQ, which has the most updated count, has Bernie's lead down to 2.7 points over Buttigieg.
results.decisiondeskhq.com
@CahnEmily Imagine imagine if after the debacle in Iowa, Sanders is leading all night and then Buttigieg pulls ahead in very late returns and/or it goes to a recount.
@CahnEmily Now 2.3 points per DDHQ
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
That's fair enough, I guess... the media always loves the candidate on the rise. But maybe the biggest flaw in media coverage of the primaries is the assumption that candidates on the rise in polls tend to continue to rise, when empirically it's much closer to a random walk.
I'd note that outside of Bernie/Pete rising a bit and Biden falling after IA, which is in line with what you'd expect given the results there, none of the polling shifts in this primary have been super predictable.
Like if you predicted more than 1 or 2 of these, more power to you. I certainly didn't, and I don't think there was anything that intrinsically predictable about any of them.
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I can't with this guy...but interestingly, he's also revealing a lot with each one of these interviews.

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