It seems like our model is more bullish on Sanders than the conventional wisdom right now, for basically 2 reasons
1) It's treating Iowa as much more of a win for Sanders than the CW seems to be doing
2) It doesn't really make any assumptions about Bernie having a "ceiling" etc.
1) It's treating Iowa as much more of a win for Sanders than the CW seems to be doing
2) It doesn't really make any assumptions about Bernie having a "ceiling" etc.
I think there is some reason to be worried about 1, to the extent that perception can be reality when it comes to post-election bounces. We'll see, though. Within a few days, our model's assumptions about the post-IA bounce will be replaced by polling.
re: No 2, though, I think (post Trump/2016) I feel pretty good about not building too any assumptions into the model about candidates having ceilings. Especially given that the way you'd probably do that, favorability ratings, look reasonably good for Bernie anyway.
