Black voters were a big topic in last nights #DemDebate w/ candidates going back & forth about them
But there are still ?s about what some Blk voters are looking for from candidates & what that means for who will win their support
Let's go on a thread journey, shall we?
But there are still ?s about what some Blk voters are looking for from candidates & what that means for who will win their support
Let's go on a thread journey, shall we?
This time last year, we had 2 Black candidates running for president & some of us thought one of these two would be Black voters' choice..
Back then, I had another thread about the complexities of Black voters' Black candidate selection:
Back then, I had another thread about the complexities of Black voters' Black candidate selection:
What hasn't changed in a year:
Black voter candidate selection is still a complex and nuanced process.
What has changed:
All the front runners are white.
(washingtonpost.com/context/washin…)
Black voter candidate selection is still a complex and nuanced process.
What has changed:
All the front runners are white.
(washingtonpost.com/context/washin…)
So where does this leave us? Most of our assumptions about Black voter candidate selection are thrown out and some of us find ourselves asking,
"Who will they choose??"
"They're all Democrats... what does this mean?"
"What is going to happen in South Carolina??"
"Who will they choose??"
"They're all Democrats... what does this mean?"
"What is going to happen in South Carolina??"
Now, Black voters having to choose between white Democratic candidates is nothing new, but the attention to their candidate selection process is...
So while I can't (wont?) tell you who Black voters will choose b/c i'm not psychic, and we are complex/strategic political actors, i CAN provide some insights from my research on the considerations many (NOT ALL) Black voters make when choosing candidates to support...
In my research, I draw on the unique historical narrative of Black Americans, and argue that many Black voters are looking for some signal of a candidate's commitment to placing the group's interests above their self-interest, or what I call community commitment.
How this commitment looks and affects Black voters' candidate preference depends on a variety of factors, but what is clear is not signaling some commitment to Black voters & hoping their Democratic-ness will get you support isn't gonna work...
So candidates have to signal this commitment.
What might these signals look like?
They can take many forms.
1 way might be policy...
(nytimes.com/2020/01/19/us/…)
What might these signals look like?
They can take many forms.
1 way might be policy...
(nytimes.com/2020/01/19/us/…)
Another might be highlighting a connection one has with an important figures and/or symbols for many within the Black community (politico.com/news/2020/01/1…)
Another might be highlighting past sacrifices made for Black people
(feelthebern.org/bernie-sanders…)
(feelthebern.org/bernie-sanders…)
Another could be found in ads like this...
Perhaps a candidate uses all of them throughout a campaign...
There are lots of ways candidates can signal their commitment to Black voters, but I find that every signal does not have the same effect on Black voters' candidate evaluations because the perceived commitment may vary based on the kind of signal they use
It is also important to note that these signals are not happening in a political vacuum. This means that their influence and effect will vary based on numerous factors because it's politics so...
But we know the signals do matter. And this crop of candidates know it too, hence...
Takeaway: Many Black voters are driven by a desire to optimize their candidate choice by choosing a candidate whose commitment to prioritizing the group is the most apparent and well established.
For a more detailed discussion of my theory and the subsequent tests of said theory, here's my article:
…2-44b7-bcc7-f30f8558db01.filesusr.com/ugd/947e22_a1b…
…2-44b7-bcc7-f30f8558db01.filesusr.com/ugd/947e22_a1b…
