Hi @rtmcswee
I'm surprised that there is no discussion of 2C - 2.9C being enough to doom the Amazon (see Lynas' discussion of the 2000 Hadley Centre paper).
After exploring various sources, I think 1.5C-2.9C could see the end of the forest (see next tweet).
Thoughts?
Thanks,
Ben
I'm surprised that there is no discussion of 2C - 2.9C being enough to doom the Amazon (see Lynas' discussion of the 2000 Hadley Centre paper).
After exploring various sources, I think 1.5C-2.9C could see the end of the forest (see next tweet).
Thoughts?
Thanks,
Ben
It would seem a fragmentation tipping point has already been reached or else is extremely close.
But even without that catastrophe, average warming of 1.9°C to 2.9°C seems to me to risk destruction of the Amazon. See this thread:
But even without that catastrophe, average warming of 1.9°C to 2.9°C seems to me to risk destruction of the Amazon. See this thread:
*just for clarity, the extraordinary idea of 3C by 2029 in this thread comes from the paper below. Of course, I recognise that even 1.8-1.9C would be considered unlikely by many, though 2C by 2036 has been suggested by Mann, and one study I have come across has 2C by 2030.
'Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE'
