Thread by @matt_liberal

My job involves data analysis. So I used some of the skills I've developed to model the electoral votes in 10 swing states for each democratic candidate.

Their are 538 electoral votes between the 50 states plus DC.
19 blue for 216 votes
22 red for 180
10 swing states for 142

To win the presidential election in November, the candidate has to win 270 electoral votes. So the democratic candidate will need to win 54 electoral votes from those 10 swing states.

My data source:
Each candidate vs Trump, filtered by swing state from
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…

My method:
If the poll shows the candidate ahead of Trump by 6 points or more, I'll call that a big lead.
Ahead by 4-5, a decent lead.
Ahead 1-3 a tight lead.
Even is a toss up.

I'll add up each category to see who has the best chance to get 270 and beat Trump.
#ShowMe270

Results:
BIDEN: big lead on 20 votes, decent lead on 44. If he hangs on to those leads he wins easily with 280 votes. He has a tight lead on 47. If he wins those it's a blowout at 327. Trump has a big lead on 10 votes and a tight lead on 10.

IN, 11 votes, has no polling data.

BLOOMBERG: big lead on 64 votes. If he hangs on to those big leads he wins easily with 280 votes. He has a decent lead on 16, which would give him 296. He was not included in 3 polls w 35 votes. Trump has a big lead on 16 votes and no decent leads or tight leads.

BUTTIGIEG: no big leads. Decent lead on 20 votes. If he wins those he's at 236, not close to 270. He has a tight lead on 20, which would bring him to 256, still a blowout loss. Trump has a big lead on 10 votes, a decent lead on 47 and a tight lead on 34.

KLOBUCHAR: big lead on 20 votes. If she wins those she is way behind with 236 votes. No decent leads. Tight lead on 16. If she keeps those, she still loses big with 252 votes. She's not included in 3 polls with 35 votes. Trump has a big lead on 10 votes and a decent lead on 50.

SANDERS: no big leads. Decent lead on 51 votes. If he hangs on to those he is still short with 267 and Trump wins. Toss up on 47 votes. Trump has a big lead on 29 votes, the most vs any opponent. Trump has a tight lead on 4.

WARREN: no big leads or decent leads. She has a tight lead on 36 votes. If she hangs on to those toght leads she still loses big with 252 votes. Toss up on 47 votes. Trump has a big lead on 14 votes and a decent lead on 34.

The best odds to beat Trump are Bloomberg and Biden, in that order.

The biggest long shots to beat Trump are Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bernie, in that order.

I am not bashing your candidate. I am just telling you what the data shows for the only 10 states that matter.

To paraphrase the last true statement Lindsey Graham has made,
If we nominate someone who can't win the electoral college, we will get destroyed and we will deserve it.

If your candidate of choice is a long shot to beat Trump, I'm sorry to say, you should pick someone else.

Appendix:
Polling data by swing state