Thread by @malinablue

Corona virus could turn out to be a big scary deal. Here's why.

Corona virus kills about 2% of those infected, which seems to us very low, but that number is deceptive. It's already killed more people than far deadlier viruses & this thread explains why it's more dangerous.

First, some scary context. The 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed 50 MILLION people worldwide, had a mortality rate similar to Corona virus - about 2.5%.

How could a virus with such a seemingly low mortality rate kill so many when more lethal viruses don't?

It's precisely BECAUSE the virus is deadly - but not too deadly - that it can kill more.

H5N1 - the bird flu that terrified us earlier this century - kills 60% of those who get it. It is far more lethal than Corona. Yet Corona has already caused more deaths.

When people get H5N1 or SARS or MERS - all much more lethal viruses - they get horribly sick - so sick they can't go out to spread the virus. They also die quickly before they can spread the virus. They're easily identifiable because they're dramatically sick & can be quarantined

Corona, on the other hand, can be very mild in some people. Many who get it will be asymptomatic for weeks or never show symptoms at all. They won't know they're sick or will feel only moderately sick. They will go to work, school, out shopping and will infect hundreds of others.

Tests for Corona can be negative initially even when person is contagious. This is why many scientists believe Corona is not containable. We won't know who has it & can't quarantine. Some w/ mild illness will feel fine enough to go out while contagious. Others who get it will die

Flu infects as many as 20% of us each season & Corona virus may be just as contagious. Flu has mortality rate of .01 percent - one-tenth of one percent - yet kills about 50,000 Americans each year. Corona mortality rate is about 2.3 percent, far higher. If millions are infected..

If it becomes a true pandemic in America, as CDC believes it will, it could likely kill hundreds of thousands of people. It will also cause panic & fear & negatively influence the economy (it's already killing the stock market).

Add to that the panic that will happen when people realize the government is hiding the truth from them - Trump has ordered all messaging on the virus to go through the WH. He doesn't want a repeat of that CDC press conference yesterday.

Trump administration has de-funded the CDC, fired the pandemic response teams. This is the worst possible time & the worst possible presidency for a pandemic to occur.

Meanwhile, our "president" says Corona will just miraculously disappear one day, likely in April. This is who is leading America through a truly perilous pandemic.

I should have said "COVID19" in this thread to be accurate. It's a strain of Corona virus, but there are other less-deadly Coronaviruses, including common cold. So if a Trump supporter tries to tell you Corona is just the cold, you'll know he's a fool.
who.int/health-topics/…

Did you all get a COVID-19 letter from your schools today? We got a "Communication to Parents" letter CDC asked all school systems to share. It gave info & says schools are being sent "supplies" in case a child presents w/ symptoms. Wondering if all systems shared it as CDC asked

One thing I don't get, which maybe expert can explain. I read COVID-19 kills same way as 1918 Spanish Flu - cytokine storm kicks immune system into overdrive. Spanish Flu killed young, healthy people w/ strongest immune systems, yet I'm not hearing the same about COVID-19.

Does anyone know why? I've been doing my Google research, but can't find explanation for this logical inconsistency. If COVID-19 kills in same way as 1918 Spanish Flu, then why doesn't it kill those with strongest immune systems like Spanish Flu did? I'd really like to understand