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Bloomberg is polling first in the RCP average of exactly *one* state, Oklahoma, and in the most recent poll he dropped out of first, yet media discusses him as a top-tier Sanders opponent; meanwhile Warren is meeting the 15% threshold for delegates in CA *and* TX and gets ignored
IOW, maybe it's time for the media to admit that its dalliance with Bloomberg has to end; that Biden won't suddenly become an inspiring candidate who has his act together no matter how much he wins South Carolina by; and that Warren deserves and is getting a second look by *many*
So many people who *don't* support Warren have nevertheless written me to say they agree that she's being treated with historical unfairness by the media for no obvious reason; the only question is when (it better be soon!) the media owns up to what it has done and fixes its sh*t
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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
Watching the conservative, religious Democrats of SC send a twice-failed presidential candidate to a primary victory within 240 seconds of the polls closing, all I can say is, could we please stop letting progressive independent-minded Democrats in NH have any say in the process?
PS/ Obviously I kid: I've often said the early primary states, taken in totality, must be reflective of the Democratic Party in *all respects* a voting population can be representative. Let's just not pretend that SC is where innovative, non-establishment Democrats go to succeed.
PS2/ The guff New Hampshire receives for having such an early role in the nominating process is sensible in many respects and misguided in others. What always annoys me, though, is the implication that we serve up safer picks than later states. No—*we* give real underdogs a shot.
Read 10 tweets
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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) I see many stories on the Coronavirus, many on the election, a few on the politics of the Coronavirus, and virtually nothing on how the Coronavirus could interrupt election season. Isn't that a conversation analysts should at least *begin*? I try to do so in this thread.
1/ Please note that I'm only discussing *scenario-planning*. I'm not saying what will or won't come to pass—we can't know—only that not starting a discussion until we're (potentially) in the midst of an unprecedented situation makes no sense. We should discuss possibilities now.
2/ The first thing to note is that live primaries constitute enormous gatherings of people that would likely be considered inadvisable in the *potential* future of a larger Coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. The primaries extend into June. What if the last few need to be cancelled?
Read 36 tweets
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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
OK, someone has to say it: @LEGOMastersFOX is a good show, but the judges bullied Christian and Aaron into wasting their Golden Brick by unreasonably criticizing their strong builds week after week—all because they wanted the Brick back in circulation. That's BS, @LEGOMastersFOX.
@LEGOMastersFOX PS/ There's a clear hierarchy on the show that the show's trying to hide with dodgy narrative. God bless Boone and Mark—but Flynn and Richard should've been finalists this week. @LEGOMastersFOX is trying to hide that Tyler and Amy and Flynn and Richard are far beyond their peers.
@LEGOMastersFOX PS2/ Reality competitions in their first season are particularly scared about the possibility they've mis-calibrated things—but based on the preview of next week's show, it seems @LEGOMastersFOX *may* have pushed from the show two of its strongest builders in Christian and Aaron.
Read 6 tweets

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Bill Mitchell
@mitchellvii
I have a simple question on polling.

If, in fact, polls are random, WHY is the dramatic oversample ALWAYS on the Democrat side? Why, despite controlling the White House, Senate and large majority of State Houses, do Republicans consistently represent only 24-26% of the sample?
If, in fact, as polls consistently "find," Republicans represent only 24-26% of the electorate and Independents, who clock in at 40% oppose Trump 2:1 - HOW is Trump president?
How is it that Trump won Independents by 4 points in 2016, yet by inauguration day, Gallup all all other pollsters claimed Independents now opposed him 2:1?

Have Independents EVER been 40% of turnout? No, not even close. And yet, they are always sampled as such.
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
Interesting evening spent with 4 senators at a very small gathering. LOTS of optimism—fueled by internal #poll data—that we will flip the Senate.

Maine: @SenatorCollins is DOWN by 2 points. Her #Kavanaugh vote decimated her approval rating — she went from 57 to the upper-30’s.😎
Senate breakdown is 53 @GOP—47 @SenateDems + Independent.

@DougJones faces a tough re-election bid, but @jeffsessions may split the anti-Roy Moore vote. If Moore wins the primary, Jones has a great chance.

If Jones loses, we need 4-5 seats to flip—4 if we win @POTUS, 5 if not.
In Colorado, @CoryGardner is in BIG trouble. John @Hickenlooper leads by 12 points!

In #NC, @ThomTillis is literally polling in the toilet (approval rating in the 20’s!), so another great pickup opportunity for @TheDemocrats.😎
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💧simon holmes à court
@simonahac
🤓if you know me, you know i’m an energy nerd.

i’ve visited coal & gas power stations, wind & solar farms, geothermal & hydro projects. (plus a few nuclear plants, but yet to get inside one.)

i was recently near the decommissioned yankee rowe plant and thought i'd pay a visit…
the yankee rowe nuclear power station (massachusettes) was one of the first commercial power reactors in the world.

the 185MW pressurised water reactor operated for more than 31 years (1960-1992).
in 1992 it was prematurely closed due to 'reactor pressure vessel embrittlement concerns'.

decommissioning was finally completed in 2007, some 15 years after the plant stopped operating, leaving _almost_ no trace of the former power station.
Read 13 tweets
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tess mcgeer
@tessmcgeer
felt cute might delete later
can i realistically return to this lifestyle it's not clear
u met this dude before or nah
Read 641 tweets
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Politics of Courage
@PoliticsCourage
A recent #poll provides a quick way for us to be blocked when we engage in this argument.

🍩: "Bernard is the candidate of comfortable, white men."
🌹: "A higher pct. of women, PoC and low-income people than of men, whites and high-income people view him favorably."
🍩: "Of [1]
course! The latter demos tend to be more conservative than the former are."
🌹: "So, you withdraw your claim?"
🍩: "No. It refers to the Democratic primary electorate."
🌹: "The data show you're wrong in that case, too."
🍩: "By 'Democratic,' I mean [2]
scottrasmussen.com/crosstabs-apri…
ACTUAL DEMOCRATS, not any independents who interlope in the affairs of my party."
🌹: "Even in *that* case, you're wrong."
🍩: "Well, favorability ≠ support."

Days ago, ScottRasmussen[.]com & HarrisX surveyed only Dems, among whom #BernieSanders2020 is supported by
• 20% [3]
Read 4 tweets
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Sarah DZ
@pitchblacksugar
😱😱#poll #thread😱😱

🔥Thread of poll for🔥

'THE THIRTY DARK SECRET'
1. Cheated in relationships 🙊
2. Caught red-handed😂
Read 26 tweets

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