Thread by @AukeHoekstra

Our future energy system will be more like an ecosytem and less like a factory.

I think this is a good lens through which to understand the work of people designing renewable energy systems like @mzjacobson, @ChristianOnRE, @nworbmot, me and many others.

Allow me to explain.

https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1233877764748410880

The current energy system is like a simple factory: dig>burn>use.
We control *when* we produce energy.

I understand the appeal of this simplicity and of domineering and being in control.

Also, it feels familiar to resort to burning stuff. We've been doing that since the start.

But although it is simple, it is also clunky, wastefull and unsustainable. Did you know we are burning oil a million times faster than it was formed?

Apart from that, this simple system pollutes our environment and causes climate change.

The alternative is to learn from nature.

In a natural ecosystem like a forest or a human body, things are rarely simple. Rather we speak of a complex adaptive system or CAS.

In a CAS, nobody is the boss.

Components are independent but they also rely on each other. Like humans in a happy family or company.

A CAS has many many degrees of freedom which makes very flexible, robust and resilient. It is not a 'one trick pony' but something that can adapt to different circumstances.

Back to energy systems. Solar, wind, hydro and many many other energy sources can deliver thousands of times more energy than we need and we can keep tapping their energy as long as the sun continues to shine.

But just as we cannot harvest our food on demand but have to deal with the seasons, we cannot harvest solar and wind on demand.

Instead we must learn to 'go with the flow' a bit more. And we must learn to smartly store 'fresh' energy. Like in an ecosystem.

A great example of going with the flow is charging electric vehicles when there is excess solar and wind. They stand still 23 hours a day so that's easy. Our simulations show this can eliminate all peaks on the electricity grid and lead to increased use of solar and wind.

Another great example is in the metal industry where they can melt the metal when electricity is cheap, keep it warm for a while, and then use it when there is demand in the factory for molten metal.

The same is true for heat pumps and in the future maybe even washing mashines and dryers. We have to discover where we can be flexible without inconveniencing ourselves.

The next step is optimising storage and interconnectivity. Batteries, hydrogen, metal fuels, heat storage, gravity storage... there are literally dozens of interesting storage technologogies that will each find their niche in the new ecosystem.

The biggest upset here is the rediscovery of batteries after 100 years of stagnation in which only lead-acid was used. Now we have lithium batteries that are plummeting in cost while longevity skyrockets. Soon solid state, air batteries and graphene will quicken the pace.

And interconnectivity means power lines and pipelines can ship sun and wind around the earth without the need to store it. New developments like high voltage direct current (HVDC) can transport electricity over large distances and even through seas with small losses.

I would also not be surprised if superconductivity and materials like graphene take this entirely new levels. Then we would really have a world wide web of energy.

Which brings me to the last puzzle piece: the Internet. The Internet will act like the nervous system of this superorganism.

If you take our current dig>burn>use energy industry and you add large amounts of wind, solar and hydro it looks as if that is hard and expensive. But that's mainly because you apply an outdated mindset.

What people like @mzjacobson, @ChristianOnRE, @nworbmot show us is that as you seek flexibility and add new types of storage and new market models, system costs go down.

And then we find that *yes*, we can really have clean and abundant energy forever against lower cost.

The only question that remains is: how we can make the transition as fast and smooth as possible with manageagble investments?

That is a complex question since renewable technologies constantly improve while you must also deal with human preferences, politics, financial markets and local conditions.

(I will research this question the coming 5 years with a large team in the NEON research project.)

Bottom line:

The renewable energy system of the future will be less like a traditional industry and more like an ecology. (Jargon: complex adaptive system.)

Once you look at it like that and add all the puzzle pieces you will see we can have abundant cheap clean energy forever.

Apparently this message resonates. Would love to 'flesh it out' further so I can make ppl understand the new system is not a problem but simply different. Any tips?

So what metaphor struck a chord with you and why?

Anything you would add or leave out?

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