Forecast today. I promise. First half of the day, probably. We wanted to look at one more thing before we published, which is: How should the model account for the fact that there's been a lot of volatility in the polls recently?
We researched this yesterday and the quick version of the answer is that polling volatility predicts future volatility over the short-to-medium run. It's sort of like how there can be short-term volatility spikes in the stock market. So our model will now account for that.
It's still (spoiler alert) gonna be quite confident in Biden. He's in a very good position, maybe even more so than the conventional wisdom assumes. But also there's a higher-than-usual chance that polls remain volatile over the next few weeks. That gives Bernie a small opening.
