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Quite a spread in Michigan polls but they all point to Biden well ahead:

Monmouth: Biden +15
Mitchell Research & Communications: Biden +21
EPIC-MRA: Biden +24
Concord Public Opinion Partners: Biden +30
Target Insyght: Biden +41

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Biden's lead in our polling average (+25) is actually a bit larger than Clinton's in 2016 (+21). So this would be a bigger upset. Always possible! But... the demographics of Michigan don't look nearly as good for the 2020 version of Sanders's coalition as the 2016 version.
YouGov with a more modest Biden +12 in Michigan, although it looks like a rather small sample size. So we've got a spread from +12 to +41. news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I know people have made this point. But I don't it's totally sunk in how much there's a fairly direct 1:1 trade-off between better testing/tracking on the one hand, and the need for radical, society-wide social distancing (with all its consequences) on the other hand.
The better testing/tracking you have, the less social distancing you need to achieve equivalent health outcomes. You can focus social distancing efforts more precisely at people who are sick or at immediate risk of being sick and others can get back to normal life a bit more.
Because US testing capabilities are so behind, the *only* solution now is just to tell everyone to stay home, especially in areas (SF, NYC, SEA) with likely stress on ERs.

When we're on the other side of this, improving testing/tracking will help us get back to normal sooner.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Per our poll with @Ipsos, Democratic voters rated Biden's debate performance more highly than Sanders's.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-sanders-…
Also, more Democrats are now considering Biden and fewer are considering Sanders than before the debate. Image
Biden generally hasn't done super well in our post-debate polls. This was his highest-rated debate of the cycle.

I'm not really sure what the path is for Sanders to come back. It was already thin and it probably depended on Biden bellyflopping last night, and that didn't happen.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Yeah, as I've done more reading, I think this is something people need to be realistic about. Although even 2 weeks of shutting everything down could make a *LOT* of difference, we're probably (high uncertainty) talking about longer before things get back to even semi-normal.
Presumably, things will start to open back up in roughly the inverse order in which they're shut down (so, like, restaurants and movie theaters at *half* capacity might be some of the first things to open back up; large gatherings would take longer).
I do think businesses should be thinking about how to minimize crowding and queuing along with other interventions for a possibly long period of not-closed-but-not-normal-either.
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The Resistance Movement💎
@ResistMoveTRM
Why Did @joebiden win Michigan? Congrats Biden!
1. AUTO BAILOUT. #Michigan is loyal to those who LOYAL to them.
2. Michigan is TIRED of @realDonaldTrump. They believe Biden can WIN!
3. SOME TOXIC @BernieSanders supporters VERY MUCH HURT THEIR CANDIDATE. Online behavior matters /1
4. Michigan was STRONG for @BarackObama and @JoeBiden was his guy!
5. Michigan Voters wants a POTUS ready to START 1/20/21.
6. Michigan Voters Flipped To Key Seats #Slokin & #Stevens w/ Moderate Dems in 2018.
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7. Michigan Voters Voted a BLUE TOP OF TICKET w/ @GovWhitmer @LtGovGilchrist @JocelynBenson & @dananessel in 2018 - a Mix of Progressives & Moderates. MI is a Moderate-Progressive State.
8. Michigan Voters Believe the Economy is Soft & @JoeBiden can fix it. /3
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EVent Horizon
@evdefender
Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

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DocRock1007 🇺🇸
@DocRock1007
1. New #QAnon today is related to ousted Ukraine Ambassador #Yovanovitch having ordered our country's State Dept. to spy on our own American journalists and Trump allies.
2. You see, "America is no longer for sale."
Because, "It’s been a long time since we’ve had a non-corrupt President who works on behalf of the American people and not himself." #QAnon #Q
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The #GreatAwakening.
RETURN #POWERTOTHEPEOPLE." #Q
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Devin Nunes' Mom's Son Devin
@visionsurreal
A pair of global political operations headquartered in Romania--MAJORITAS and QUESTIA--played a role in our 2016 election.

The person who established their US offices is GEORGE BIRNBAUM, who is of interest to Senate Intel re: PSY-GROUP.

@MarkWarner, this is for you. /1
This "exclusive" of sorts comes courtesy of my digging into a revelation reported in Forensic News' exclusive on WALTER SORIANO, the "covert operative for Russian and Israeli elite."

The report indicates Senate Intel has questions re: George Birnbaum. /2
Specifically, Senate Intel "is interested in a pair of Washington, DC companies incorporated in January 2016, weeks before Birnbaum pitched the Trump campaign on Psy Group." /3
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Spencer Foundation
@Spencer_Fdn
THREAD: What are some writing tips for a successful @Spencer_Fdn Research Grant Proposal?
So glad you asked! ONE: Remember who your readers are. Your proposal will be read by people who are knowledgeable in your field of study & methodology as well as generalists in ed research.
Therefore, your writing should be clear and direct. While you may use technical language in your proposal, please avoid jargon and hyperbole.
TWO: Plan writing with your deadline in mind. It's tempting to aim for the next available proposal deadline, but that can lead to rushed and incomplete proposals.
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