Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Per our poll with @Ipsos, Democratic voters rated Biden's debate performance more highly than Sanders's.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-sanders-…
Also, more Democrats are now considering Biden and fewer are considering Sanders than before the debate.
Biden generally hasn't done super well in our post-debate polls. This was his highest-rated debate of the cycle.

I'm not really sure what the path is for Sanders to come back. It was already thin and it probably depended on Biden bellyflopping last night, and that didn't happen.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Nate Silver

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
So, yeah, NYC is sort of the exception to my mantra of "we're measuring tests, not cases".

NYC has done quite a few tests, but the situation in NYC is clearly quite bad even once you account for the comparatively high number of tests done.
For the most part, I'm much more interested in measures like these in NYC than in the count of positive cases.

* Hospitalizations
* ER visits
* People in ICUs
* People on ventilators
* COVID among medical staff
* Equipment shortages
* People denied care

nytimes.com/2020/03/20/nyr…
Those indicators seem worrying, both from data (where available) and reporting (see article above). What we don't really know yet is how much worse it's going to get, which depends on how much NYC succeeded in bending the curve at various stages of its (slow) response.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
THREAD:

Washington state is a good example of the importance of accounting for the number of tests when reporting COVID-19 case counts. Remember I mentioned a couple of days ago how their number of cases in WA had begun to stabilize? Well, guess what happened...
Today, they reported 189 positives, along with 175 yesterday, as compared with an average of 106 positives per day in the 7 days before that. So, not great on the surface... new cases increased by 70%! But you also have to look at the number of tests.

covidtracking.com/data/state/was…
Washington conducted 3,607 tests today and 2,976 yesterday. By comparison, they'd conducted an average of 1,670 tests in the 7 days before that. So they've increased testing capacity by 97% over their baseline. Meanwhile, detected cases have increased, but by "only" 70%.
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I don't find Trump's approval ratings for his handling of coronavirus to be very interesting. It is a crisis, people may have an initial instinct to rally together. But there are going to be a lot of negative consequences for many months, almost all of which aren't realized yet.
Trump's *overall* approval is also flat (and low), when you might otherwise expect a rally-around-the-flag effect. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
Finally, we haven't seen any negative ads yet. They will come, in big numbers, in the fall. If the next few months don't go well, it is easy to imagine effective ads comparing Trump's predictions that coronavirus was on the wane to the awful consequences it had.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Blank Slate
@blankslate2017
#democratic primary: It's 12/1 and just over 2 months to the IA caucuses. So what the heck is going on in this primary that's being conducted in the middle of a constitutional crisis? Well, the bottom line is that young voters are steadier in their preferences than older voters.
Taking @surveyusa polling from Aug-Nov, we see that the 18-34 vote has barely moved for Warren (-1), Pete (+1), Biden (+2) and Harris (-1). For Bernie, there was a big drop of -10 from Aug to Sept, but has since stabilized at 35, highest of any candidate in that demo.
Among 35-49 voters, since Aug, Liz is +2, Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Joe (-5) and Harris (-4). Among 50-64 voters: Warren (+2), Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Biden (-4), Harris (-5). Among 65+: Warren (-13), Pete (+7), Bernie (+2), Joe (-4), Harris (-5).
Read 19 tweets
Profile picture
Su Mohan #WinBlue🗽 #DemsWork4USA🇺🇸
@SuMoh7
✨Democrats Work For America✨

We're people-funded pac committed to electing #Democrats by
✔️targeting winnable races
✔️registering, protecting, engaging, mobilizing voters
✔️building coalitions; maximizing #GOTV efforts

Support👉actblue.com/donate/demswor…

#VoteBlue
#DemsWork4USA
🔁@DemsWork4USA, we're working hard & smart to organize, involve & channel grassroots activists to help #WinBlue, including assessing, vetting & early support of candidates in a multi-layered strategy.

🙏Support our work. Give if you can.
👉actblue.com/donate/demswor…

#DemsWork4USA
@DemsWork4USA 🔁Join us!

👉docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…

We are #StrongerTogether!
#YesWeCan #FlipItBlue #KeepItBlue #WinBlue

#Democrats #liberals #progressives #moderates #Dems #Dem #NPP #IND #WomensMarch #ScienceMarch #Ω #Diversity #LGBTQ #Equality #Climate
#DemsWork4USA
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Su Mohan #WinBlue🗽 #DemsWork4USA🇺🇸
@SuMoh7
✨Democrats Work For America✨

We're people-funded pac committed to electing #Democrats by
✔️targeting winnable races
✔️registering, protecting, engaging, mobilizing voters
✔️building coalitions; maximizing #GOTV efforts

Support👉actblue.com/donate/demswor…

#VoteBlue
#DemsWork4USA
🔁Join us!

👉docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…

We are #StrongerTogether!
#YesWeCan #FlipItBlue #KeepItBlue #WinBlue

#Democrats #liberals #progressives #moderates #Dems #Dem #NPP #IND #WomensMarch #ScienceMarch #Ω #Diversity #LGBTQ #Equality #Climate
#DemsWork4USA
🔁We @DemsWork4USA are designed to overcome precisely this👇(and similar) well-funded machinery on the Right (read the article), with the help of large # of small $ donors like you.

Support👉actblue.com/donate/demswor…
#BlueWave #WinBlue #DemsWork4USA

Read 👉politico.com/story/2018/05/…
Read 18 tweets
Profile picture
Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Ali Adair
@AliAdair22
🔥🔥🔥Michael Beschloss was on @Morning_Joe promoting his new book "Presidents of War" and said that he wouldn't be surprised if Trump didn't use WAR as a political cover for the Russia investigation.

💥What if Trump uses WAR or some terrorist incident before November 6th?
🇷🇺This is from Putin's playbook which he has been using every step of the way.

Read this to find out how Putin came into power in Russia.👇

📉Yeltsin wanted Putin to succeed him (so he could be pardoned for crimes), but only had a 2% approval rating.

✍️Many journalists wrote that the terrorist incidents—4 bombings that killed 293 people & injured more than 1000—were the work of the FSB, ordered by Putin.

🗞️Some of those journalists are dead.

🦸‍♂️The citizens, understandably terrified, hailed Putin as their hero.
Read 14 tweets

Trending hashtags

#WeBuildTheWall #ClintonFoundation #ClimateCrisis #PrimaryElection #BuildTheWall #ImmigrantReform #Democrats #FreeEddieGallagher #Arizona #ActOnClimate #Mobile #activists #ImpeachTrumpPenceBarr #Obama #Election2020 #EnemyOfThePeople #LGBTQ #TheStormIsUpOnUs #YemenCantWait #voterID #TXSEN #SLAVES #YesWeCan #TickTock #VoterRegistration

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!