Speaking as a sports fan, I think it's time sports fans talked more about what the hell is happening. So I'm going to do that for a minute.
Here's a table looking at possible COVID outcomes from former CDC director Tom Frieden and Think Global Health. Frieden describes the possibility of a million US deaths as "a worst case scenario—but unfortunately one that’s not implausible." thinkglobalhealth.org/article/could-… 
As the table suggests, there's still a massively wide set of possible outcomes. But I haven't seen numbers yet that suggest we're headed in the right direction yet. Here's our # of cases plotted vs. Italy's
This thread is what's happening in the hardest-hit areas of Italy
When that happens, people die
There's already mathematical reason to think that will happen in Washington state by the end of the month
The best way is to prevent that from happening is to reduce the number of infections now, today. One of the best ways to do that is social distancing. A great example from the end of this Atlantic piece theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This is why I struggle to even process the recklessness, the utter soul-shattering stupidity of our president, other leaders, and conservative media promoting the "it's just flu" narrative.
Back to sports in specific: one look at the mentions for writers like @DanWolken or @slmandel the last couple of days should tell you how deeply "it's just flu" has taken hold among sports fans.
When the people deciding whether we're going to go ahead with NBA games, with an NCAA Tournament, with MLS matches make those decisions, they feel keenly not just how much money they will lose but how much anger they will generate among their fans.
Repeating "it's just flu" works directly against the creation of the necessary collective will to say "yes, canceling this tournament is OK. Yes, we can make the changes necessary to save lives."
To be specific: I know good and well the SEC Tournament isn't about to follow the Ivy's lead and suddenly close its doors, much less cancel. But there's been a non-travel-related corona case in Nashville fox17.com/news/local/cas…
There's multiple cases in Georgia. There's deaths in Florida.
Gathering fans from all over the southeast, sticking them in a handful of hotels, cramming 15,000 of them into a basketball arena multiple times a day for nearly a week, and then sending them all home strikes me as a truly terrible idea at this point in time.
We're going to go through with it anyway, of course. If we don't go through with the NCAA's first weekend, I'll be shocked.
What I ask is this, sports fans: that we make it known that if people like @GregSankey, Adam Silver, Mark Emmert want to shut things down, they should.
What I ask is this, sports fans: that we make it known that if people like @GregSankey, Adam Silver, Mark Emmert want to shut things down, they should.
There's too much at stake to wait and see what happens instead of deciding to make things happen. A million dead Americans is only plausible if we let it become plausible. Fin.
Thankfully, since firing this thread off earlier today the tide seems to have turned at least a little on this particular issue
(Still a metric ton of work to do.)
Why basketball games shouldn't be played in front of fans in any major US city right now, summarized neatly
