Thread by @sunnshiiny

Please watch this video document how epidemics turn into pandemics.

Notice the European nations that reach pandemic status first. They aren’t the first countries to document COVid-19 infections.

There are nations that reach pandemic status faster, even though their first documented case comes later than other nations. It means the virus was spreading before the first case was determined. Making mitigation their only option. Containment was not implemented.

The difference is leadership. Every European nation has advanced public health capacity. It’s how it’s managed by its leaders that makes the difference.

Those that were quick to implement a pandemic plan, slowed the infection rate, and gave healthcare the time to respond.

This will reach pandemic levels in Canada. It’s a matter of time before that happens.

Watch the provinces that struggle to contain the rate of infection.

I predict Alberta will struggle the most. Followed by Saskatchewan.

That’s a guess based on the type of leadership.

I would include Ontario, but Toronto has SARS experience and leads Canada in pandemic preparedness. And Ford hasn’t severely attacked healthcare funding, yet.

The measures to watch are the date of first recorded infection, and the rate of spread.

Ontario’s first recorded case was January 25, 2020

Current number of cases in Ontario 37 (March 11, 2020) 45 days

BC first recorded case Jan. 28, 2020

Current BC cases 39. In 42 days

Alberta first recorded case Mar. 6, 2020

Current Alberta cases 14 March 11, 2020. In 5 days.

Plot the graph.

Alberta cases are multiplying far faster than Ontario and BC.

That’s due to the difference in leadership and healthcare capacity.

I predict Alberta will peak much sooner and overwhelm the healthcare system. Causing far more deaths and much greater impact.

It is the difference between protecting the public vs protecting political reputations, corporate profits and the economy.

Dead people don’t benefit from the economy.

Containment is key at the beginning of an outbreak.

https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/1236935099276496901

For whom is UCP governing?

Is it the citizens of Alberta?

Or is UCP making decisions that preserve the profits of corporations and ignoring containment? Have the healthcare cuts devastated healthcare capacity? Was containment a priority?

Alberta will find out in a matter of days.

If confirmed COVid-19 numbers rise sharply in Alberta in the next few days, we will have the answer.

People over profits is the focus of BC and Ontario.

We will find out very soon what the priority order is in Alberta.

I have an intuition that UCP is far more concerned with preserving corporate profits for as long as possible.

Kenney hasn’t really been focussing on COVid-19, except to blame it for incoming economic devastation.

God, please let me be wrong.