German division and reunification and the “effects” of Communism
Some caveats from f/c JEP paper with @LukasMergele & Ludger Woessmann @ifo_Education
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…
Issue #1: The GDR can be spotted before it even existed. (1/13)
Some caveats from f/c JEP paper with @LukasMergele & Ludger Woessmann @ifo_Education
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…
Issue #1: The GDR can be spotted before it even existed. (1/13)
(2/13) Further economic outcomes
(3/13) Political preferences
(4/13) Culture
(5/13) Gender roles
(6/13) These differences show up also in border samples, so geographic RDD is not necessarily a way out.
(7/13) There are further issues: #2: East and West were differentially affected by World War II and the occupying forces:
Sex ratio 1946 lower in East (but not pre-WWII).
Soviet occupation in East:
Higher losses due to dismantling of capital equipment (reparations) in East.
Sex ratio 1946 lower in East (but not pre-WWII).
Soviet occupation in East:
Higher losses due to dismantling of capital equipment (reparations) in East.
(8/13) Issue #3: selective out-migration 1945-1961
About one-fifth of East Germany’s population migrated West until 1961 (when the Berlin Wall was built).
They are a selective group of migrants and probably not big fans of Communism …
About one-fifth of East Germany’s population migrated West until 1961 (when the Berlin Wall was built).
They are a selective group of migrants and probably not big fans of Communism …
(9/13) #4: (Selective) West-to-East migration
About half a million people went from West to East before 1961.
GDR propaganda: people “not in agreement with capitalist system”.
Six out of 19 Politburo members were born in West, incl. Erich Honecker, GDR leader in 1971-1989.
About half a million people went from West to East before 1961.
GDR propaganda: people “not in agreement with capitalist system”.
Six out of 19 Politburo members were born in West, incl. Erich Honecker, GDR leader in 1971-1989.
(10/13) Take-away: German division and reunification is not a straightforward natural experiment. We should be cautious in interpreting the evidence of some (great) papers on the enduring “effects” of living under communism.
(11/13) Interesting avenue for future research: study “endogeneity of political systems” more generally. Regime changes are not random and often trigger selective migration of those who feel most strongly for or against the regime.
(12/13) Bonus graph 1/2: Sad and well-known fact: GDP gap between East and West is very persistent.
(13/13) Bonus graph 2/2: GDR population had fallen behind in terms of life expectancy during second half of GDR. But gap has closed. Good news.
