My Authors
Read all threads
For a contrarian take on the worldwide response to COVID19 by a very smart scientist, John Ioannidis @Stanford, who argues we may be (and perhaps are) over-reacting, see:… via @jflier 1/
He rightly points out that we are making huge decisions with crappy data, and he is right that we should (immediately) put into place surveillance for COVID19. Many smart scientists are working full time to assemble such data and fill in holes in data we have. 2/
Given all the data uncertainties, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio (CFR) of COVID19 in the general U.S. population could be between 0.05% (half as deadly as the flu) to 1% (ten times as deadly as the flu), according to Ioannidis! That's a huge range. 3/
Ioannidis fears that, when it comes to the severe measures countries around the world are taking, "It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies." 4/
I do not think his sense that many other scientists are being too pessimistic about the COVID19 pandemic is right, though he is quite right that, at this early stage, much is unknown about SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. 5/
I do not think the CFR will be lower than 0.3% at the very lowest end, and I think many millions will be infected. Hence, there will be many deaths over the next year or two. Many of these deaths, alas, will occur in coming two months. 6/
For example, for a very sophisticated estimate of the CFR, based on all data and using a good method, see this discussion (and link to paper) by @StatModeling (CFR is ~1.5% in this estimate!):… 7/
But most important, what I think Ioannidis ignores is the fact that we are facing an *epidemic* with a *pulse* of cases approaching us, all at once, in a wave. It's a novel pathogen (almost surely), and many get sick & die at once. Just look at what happened in Wuhan & Italy. 8/
More analysis of the Ioannidis piece, by @mlipsitch, realistically emphasizing the stark choice we are facing (the economy or many lives); I wholly agree with Lipsitch.… 9/
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Nicholas A. Christakis

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!