Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #irandeal

Most recents (24)

Just ran: Interview with @JosepBorrellF from Ukraine on the #Irandeal and its prospects.… -1-
On a secure train returning from an EU trip to Kyiv, @JosepBorrellF told @WSJ that critics of his efforts to revive the pact perhaps “don’t value enough” dangers of nuclear Iran. “As far as I know, there is not an alternative to this deal to try to avoid Iran becoming nuclear"-2-
He says people mix up his role as coordinator for deal & EU role in condemning Iran actions. “Look, I can tell you my last conversation: Stop capital punishment. Stop repression…So if you continue on this way, you will make impossible to have any kind of political arrangement"-3
Read 8 tweets
🧵(1/ 20) Thoughts on the #US / #Saudi relationship ILO @OPECSecretariat decision: There’s a marked elite / citizenry divide in the US over the relationship: popular opinion is asserting itself in a way neither side wants.
(2/20) First, important to note that no-one in the #USA who doesn’t work on #saudi issues has been positive towards the regime there. It’s a monarchy, it denies basic human rights, it is based on extracted wealth (discovered by Americans).
(3/20) Pick your reason why: racism, Protestant Work Ethic, dissimilar political systems, diff. values. Any explanation works equally well. (I discussed in a chapter here.) Bottom Line: there is no reservoir of good will for KSA in USA.…
Read 20 tweets
🧵Difficult not to be struck by how the current #IranProtests2022 differ from those in 2009. The latter was about a stolen election and a fight within the current system re reform. They tended to be non-violent.

The anger and frustration today are FAR greater. >>
2. For two decades, attempts at reforming the system have been stymied. The regime has responded with violence, stealing elections - and marginalizing and imprisoning those seeking peaceful reforms.
3. The conclusion many young Iranian women and men appear to have reached is that attempts at reform from within should be abandoned. Two decades of failure is enough. They boycotted the last election. Their anger is immeasurable - and legitimate. >>
Read 12 tweets
Let's talk about what this actually means for Iran's nuclear program:

-Iran will ship out/blend down more than 238 kg of 20% enriched uranium

-Iran will ship out/blend down more than 43 kg of 60% enriched uranium

1/ #IranDeal
-Iran will remove about 1,000 IR-6 centrifuges

-Iran will remove about 1,000 IR-2 centrifuges

-Iran will remove about 1,000 IR-1 centrifuges

-Iran will remove more than 500 IR-4 centrifuges

-Iran will stop enrichment at Fordow & remove all uranium from the site

-Iran will be prohibited from finishing the Arak reactor based on the original design, as it has threatened to do

-Iran will be prohibited from building a new heavy water reactor (as required by Iran's 2020 nuclear law) until 2031

Read 6 tweets
At a press conference on sidelines of the Quo Vadis seminar in Spain, @JosepBorrellF gave a little insight on #IranDeal negotiations during a press conference a few minutes ago. Translated from Spanish he said that after circulating his proposal on the final text... -1-
"There was an Iranian response that I think was reasonable." That was transmitted to U.S. and the U.S. has not yet responded. "We are awaiting its response and I hope that this response will allow us to complete the negotiations. I hope for that but I can't assure you of it"-2-
"The response was supposed to have come already. A meeting was foreseen in Vienna towards the end of last week. It wasn't possible. It's possible that happens during this week." -3-
Read 8 tweets
As far as I can see there are around half dozen possibilities tomorrow, which was the unofficial deadline for responding to the EU whether the #IranDeal participants accept the deal/text left on table after latest vienna talks. -1-
1/ I think most likely is that we get no Iranian response Monday at all. They like to make a point of ignoring western set deadlines and have been pretty scornful of idea that EU text from Monday is final and negotiations over. So doubtful we’ll get Iran response tomorrow. -2-
Second most likely is we get an Iranian response which is not framed as final. But says we are ok with bulk of text but we want “assurances” on several issues — including the safeguards IAEA probe. More talks needed, Tehran would say, either with EU or broader -3-
Read 7 tweets
“Several.” The precise definition of what several means is going to be a very important factor in assessing the costs/benefits of a revival #IranDeal - if we get one. At essence, threshold nuclear or not?
“The situation we're in today, as a result of the decision to withdraw from the deal, is, Iran is only a handful of weeks away from having enough fissile material for a bomb.” -2-
“So, again, we have to compare this to the reality we're living today, if we could get a deal that would put Iran back ***several***months away from being able to have enough fissile material for a bomb,” @USEnvoyIran -3-
Read 10 tweets
The US may disagree with IAEA DG Grossi that efforts to restore the #IranDeal will be dealt a "fatal blow" in 3-4 weeks as a result of Iran's decision to unplug 27 cameras, but the agency's assessment is still significant in the domestic debate & could effect the INARA process 1/
If the IAEA cannot reliably reconstruct a history of Iran's nuclear activities during this period of reduced transparency, it will fuel speculation that Iran diverted nuclear materials for a covert weapons or hedging program. 2/
Even if there is no evidence of diversion, Iran's history of lying and obfuscation about its nuclear program will drive concerns about illegal activity. 3/
Read 19 tweets
If oil prices are really the driving Biden's cave to MBS, then Biden should have just gone back into the #IranDeal by executive order, instead of — for all practical purposes — continuing Trump’s maximum pressure strategy.
The combination of Iranian oil coming back onto the market as well as the immediate influx of more than 50 million barrels of oil that Tehran has in storage but hasn’t been able to sell because of U.S. sanctions, would better push down oil prices. >>
All Biden needed to do is to go back to the deal his former boss Barack Obama already negotiated - instead of continuing Trump's maximum pressure strategy and shooting for a "longer and stronger" deal... //
Read 3 tweets
4 years ago today, former President Trump made the irresponsible decision to withdraw the US from the #IranDeal - an agreement that had proved to be effective & verifiable in blocking Iran's pathways to the bomb.
Lets examine how damaging that decision has turned out to be 1/
Trump withdrew despite members of his own cabinet acknowledging that Iran was complying with its obligations. He also isolated the US by leaving the deal over the objections of key US allies that view the nuclear deal as critical for their security.…

Certain Trump administration officials even opposed the decision to withdraw. In Oct. 2017 then Defense Secretary Mattis said it was in the US national security interest to remain in the nuclear deal.…

Read 16 tweets
Surprise! Misinfo from @SenTedCruz on benefits of restoring 2015 #IranDeal Yes, the admin. has an assessment, which finds there ARE significant benefits, namely increasing time it would take Iran to produce an SQ of fissile material from 2 wks today to approx. 9 mnths. 1/
@SenTedCruz In addition, restoring compliance with JCPOA would ensure enhanced IAEA inspections, which are essential to provide early warning in the event Iran tries to evade the JCPOA restrictions or violate its safeguards obligations. 2/
@SenTedCruz Trump's decision to exit JCPOA in 2018 not only failed to produce the promised results; it opened the way for Iran to take steps breach the JCPOA’s nuclear limits and accelerate its capacity to produce bomb-grade nuclear material. Pursuing the same failed strategy is lunacy. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Latest. European officials are seeking to make what some fear is a final effort to try and salvage #IranDeal and unlock IRGC stalemate. @enriquemora_ has proposed going to Tehran, western diplos say. Iran is yet to answer.…
Although there has been little sign of the US preparing to announce the talks have failed, US, European diplomats are pessimistic about breakthrough. Iran has so far shut down discussion around FTO conditions. But while European officials are seeking to persuade Iran to forego-2-
FTO IRGC lifting demand, diplomats say they’re open to Iran asks on other issues if that opens the way to a breakthrough. Washington will listen to constructive counter proposals, they say, if it doesn’t mean a broad renegotiation of the JCPOA revival deal. -3-
Read 4 tweets
Back from leave and disappointed to see that the future of the #IranDeal remains in limbo and so focused on the politics of modifying IRGC sanctions.

I'm surprised to see so little discussion about the nuclear cost Biden will pay if he fails to act. 1/
Lest we forget, the JCPOA is a nuclear deal. Designed to address a decades long nuclear crisis and block Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons. The imperative of restoring the deal's guardrails is getting lost in the debate about the political cost of delisting the IRGC. 2/
While Biden would certainly pay a price for delisting the IRGC, effective nonproliferation policy that benefits U.S. security, not domestic politics should guide decision making on JCPOA. 3/
Read 18 tweets
🧵Wow! A very telling interview with head of Israel's Iran directorate from April. It gives important clues as to why, 6 mo's later, the nuclear talks are stuck...

He says Biden listens to the Bibi gov, evidenced by the US "NOT RUSHING TO A NEW DEAL"…
2. This is important as Biden wasted several weeks before starting #IranDeal talks. Those weeks were partly spent on consulting w/ Israel, which apparently advised Biden not to "rush to a deal." Biden obliged by wasting time.

Today, Biden says "time is running out" for talks >>
3. Once again, the US chose to listen to the advice of a state and its leader (Netanyahu) who clearly had shown their preference for diplomacy to fail. (This doesn't take any blame away from the Raisi gov's conduct, but Biden had a major opportunity with Rouhani that he blew) >>
Read 9 tweets
Belatedly, Tom Friedman has recognized the strategic insanity of Israel pushing Trump to quit the #IranDeal. Better late than never!

Yet, his piece is very important as it highlights two issues that the US media largely has neglected. >>…
2. First, Friedman points out that Biden made a huge mistake not simply returning to the JCPOA back in January, instead of negotiating its return (which so far has been a fruitless process). >>
3. Secondly, very little coverage has been given in US media that a large number of Israeli officials have now publicly admitted that pressing the US to exit the JCPOA was a mistake. What Israel did profoundly damaged American AND Israeli security. >>
Read 7 tweets
#BREAKING IAEA 'could not agree' in talks with Iranian officials: director general Image
#UPDATE The UN nuclear watchdog's head said on Wednesday that he "could not agree" in talks with Iranian officials to resolve disputes over the monitoring of the country's atomic programme, a day after returning from Tehran Image
#BREAKING US will not 'sit idly' if Iran drags out nuclear talks, envoy says ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

Fascinating story by @nytimes, but there are systemic flaws in its coverage of Israel/Iran. Don’t know Ronen Bergman, but @farnazfassihi is an outstanding reporter. Still, the systemic whitewashing of Israeli actions & motives is very troublesome.>>…
2. No less than 3 times (!) does it cite Israel’s justification for its assassinations at face value: It’s solely to stop Iran’s (non-existent) “nuclear weapons program.” No mention that US intelligence assesses that Iran has NOT had an active weapons program since 2003. >>
3. All 3 cases are unjustifiably deferential to Israel's official line with not even an ounce of scrutiny of the statements of a gov the Times itself has reported seeks to start a war.

This type of deference is sadly how the @nytimes helped sell the Iraq war.>>
Read 12 tweets
US Sec of State Blinken warned today that the US is getting "closer to the point at which a strict return to compliance with the #JCPOA does not reproduce the benefits that that agreement achieved"

That's not surprising given the bleak picture pained by the IAEA's new report 1/
The current IAEA monitoring situation is particularly serious. In addition to Iran's refusal to official clarify if the February 2021 special monitoring arrangement is still in place, Tehran has not responded to requests by the IAEA to access remote surveillance equipment. 2/
Under the Feb 2021 special arrangement, this equipment is recording information that will be given the IAEA if the JCPOA is restored. The data will ideally allow the IAEA to maintain knowledge about Iran's nuclear activities during the period when Iran limited inspector access.3/
Read 20 tweets
#BREAKING Iran's Khamenei says experience shows 'trusting West does not work'
#UPDATE Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday that the outgoing government's experience of engaging with world powers including the United States shows that "trusting the West does not work"
#BREAKING US tying Iran deal return to 'future' talks on missiles, region: Khamenei
Read 4 tweets
Surely, @QuincyInst’s latest paper will cause some minds in DC to explode

@Matthew_petti & I test the DC analysis that a single "bad actor" - invariably aligned against the US - accounts for most of the region's ailments. If it only was this simple…>>…
Our quantitative and qualitative study published today shows that there is a set of powerful states who all are ROUGHLY EQUALLY INTERVENTIONIST. There is no one outlier - whether Iran, Libya, or Iraq - who more than the others is responsible for regional instability.>>
Six states have been the most interventionist: Iran, Israel, Qatar, Saudi, Turkey & UAE. Iran is highly interventionist but not an outlier. The others are often equally interventionist — and at times even more so. UAE & Turkey have actually recently surpassed Iran.>>
Read 9 tweets
This move will likely remove some 20% enriched material from Iran's gas stockpile, which could increase breakout. But that is a short-term, short-sighed benefit. Uranium metal production is a violation of the #IranDeal and Iran will gain irreversible knowledge from the process.
Unfortunate that the Biden administration has not re-issued waivers for JCPOA-required nonpro projects that Trump canceled, like the import of fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. Harder for Iran to justify this move as necessary when it can import TRR fuel without penalty.
It’s also unfortunate that Iran is continuing to esclate and ractchet up its violations of the deal admist talks to restore the JCPOA. Further violations by Iran risk prolonging and disrupting talks in Vienna to restore the nuclear deal.
Read 3 tweets
I finally listened to the whole 3:11 hours of #Iran's foreign minister @JZarif 's leaked interview (which is from an apparently 7-hour whole), part of the oral history interviews done by Sayeed Leylaz with all cabinet ministers of Hasan Rouhani's administration

Some points:
Others have discussed the leak in detail but thought I'd share some points from them that were of interest to myself
Zarif is unequivocal, and says repeatedly, that not just in foreign ministry but in all affairs of the country, what he called 'Meydan' (the battlefield), clearly an euphemism for the IRGC, rules the roost . This is quite significant
Read 27 tweets

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