Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #irandeal

Most recents (24)

The US may disagree with IAEA DG Grossi that efforts to restore the #IranDeal will be dealt a "fatal blow" in 3-4 weeks as a result of Iran's decision to unplug 27 cameras, but the agency's assessment is still significant in the domestic debate & could effect the INARA process 1/
If the IAEA cannot reliably reconstruct a history of Iran's nuclear activities during this period of reduced transparency, it will fuel speculation that Iran diverted nuclear materials for a covert weapons or hedging program. 2/
Even if there is no evidence of diversion, Iran's history of lying and obfuscation about its nuclear program will drive concerns about illegal activity. 3/
Read 19 tweets
If oil prices are really the driving Biden's cave to MBS, then Biden should have just gone back into the #IranDeal by executive order, instead of — for all practical purposes — continuing Trump’s maximum pressure strategy.
The combination of Iranian oil coming back onto the market as well as the immediate influx of more than 50 million barrels of oil that Tehran has in storage but hasn’t been able to sell because of U.S. sanctions, would better push down oil prices. >>
All Biden needed to do is to go back to the deal his former boss Barack Obama already negotiated - instead of continuing Trump's maximum pressure strategy and shooting for a "longer and stronger" deal... //
Read 3 tweets
4 years ago today, former President Trump made the irresponsible decision to withdraw the US from the #IranDeal - an agreement that had proved to be effective & verifiable in blocking Iran's pathways to the bomb.
Lets examine how damaging that decision has turned out to be 1/
Trump withdrew despite members of his own cabinet acknowledging that Iran was complying with its obligations. He also isolated the US by leaving the deal over the objections of key US allies that view the nuclear deal as critical for their security.…

Certain Trump administration officials even opposed the decision to withdraw. In Oct. 2017 then Defense Secretary Mattis said it was in the US national security interest to remain in the nuclear deal.…

Read 16 tweets
Surprise! Misinfo from @SenTedCruz on benefits of restoring 2015 #IranDeal Yes, the admin. has an assessment, which finds there ARE significant benefits, namely increasing time it would take Iran to produce an SQ of fissile material from 2 wks today to approx. 9 mnths. 1/
@SenTedCruz In addition, restoring compliance with JCPOA would ensure enhanced IAEA inspections, which are essential to provide early warning in the event Iran tries to evade the JCPOA restrictions or violate its safeguards obligations. 2/
@SenTedCruz Trump's decision to exit JCPOA in 2018 not only failed to produce the promised results; it opened the way for Iran to take steps breach the JCPOA’s nuclear limits and accelerate its capacity to produce bomb-grade nuclear material. Pursuing the same failed strategy is lunacy. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Latest. European officials are seeking to make what some fear is a final effort to try and salvage #IranDeal and unlock IRGC stalemate. @enriquemora_ has proposed going to Tehran, western diplos say. Iran is yet to answer.…
Although there has been little sign of the US preparing to announce the talks have failed, US, European diplomats are pessimistic about breakthrough. Iran has so far shut down discussion around FTO conditions. But while European officials are seeking to persuade Iran to forego-2-
FTO IRGC lifting demand, diplomats say they’re open to Iran asks on other issues if that opens the way to a breakthrough. Washington will listen to constructive counter proposals, they say, if it doesn’t mean a broad renegotiation of the JCPOA revival deal. -3-
Read 4 tweets
Back from leave and disappointed to see that the future of the #IranDeal remains in limbo and so focused on the politics of modifying IRGC sanctions.

I'm surprised to see so little discussion about the nuclear cost Biden will pay if he fails to act. 1/
Lest we forget, the JCPOA is a nuclear deal. Designed to address a decades long nuclear crisis and block Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons. The imperative of restoring the deal's guardrails is getting lost in the debate about the political cost of delisting the IRGC. 2/
While Biden would certainly pay a price for delisting the IRGC, effective nonproliferation policy that benefits U.S. security, not domestic politics should guide decision making on JCPOA. 3/
Read 18 tweets
🧵Wow! A very telling interview with head of Israel's Iran directorate from April. It gives important clues as to why, 6 mo's later, the nuclear talks are stuck...

He says Biden listens to the Bibi gov, evidenced by the US "NOT RUSHING TO A NEW DEAL"…
2. This is important as Biden wasted several weeks before starting #IranDeal talks. Those weeks were partly spent on consulting w/ Israel, which apparently advised Biden not to "rush to a deal." Biden obliged by wasting time.

Today, Biden says "time is running out" for talks >>
3. Once again, the US chose to listen to the advice of a state and its leader (Netanyahu) who clearly had shown their preference for diplomacy to fail. (This doesn't take any blame away from the Raisi gov's conduct, but Biden had a major opportunity with Rouhani that he blew) >>
Read 9 tweets
Belatedly, Tom Friedman has recognized the strategic insanity of Israel pushing Trump to quit the #IranDeal. Better late than never!

Yet, his piece is very important as it highlights two issues that the US media largely has neglected. >>…
2. First, Friedman points out that Biden made a huge mistake not simply returning to the JCPOA back in January, instead of negotiating its return (which so far has been a fruitless process). >>
3. Secondly, very little coverage has been given in US media that a large number of Israeli officials have now publicly admitted that pressing the US to exit the JCPOA was a mistake. What Israel did profoundly damaged American AND Israeli security. >>
Read 7 tweets
#BREAKING IAEA 'could not agree' in talks with Iranian officials: director general Image
#UPDATE The UN nuclear watchdog's head said on Wednesday that he "could not agree" in talks with Iranian officials to resolve disputes over the monitoring of the country's atomic programme, a day after returning from Tehran Image
#BREAKING US will not 'sit idly' if Iran drags out nuclear talks, envoy says ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

Fascinating story by @nytimes, but there are systemic flaws in its coverage of Israel/Iran. Don’t know Ronen Bergman, but @farnazfassihi is an outstanding reporter. Still, the systemic whitewashing of Israeli actions & motives is very troublesome.>>…
2. No less than 3 times (!) does it cite Israel’s justification for its assassinations at face value: It’s solely to stop Iran’s (non-existent) “nuclear weapons program.” No mention that US intelligence assesses that Iran has NOT had an active weapons program since 2003. >>
3. All 3 cases are unjustifiably deferential to Israel's official line with not even an ounce of scrutiny of the statements of a gov the Times itself has reported seeks to start a war.

This type of deference is sadly how the @nytimes helped sell the Iraq war.>>
Read 12 tweets
US Sec of State Blinken warned today that the US is getting "closer to the point at which a strict return to compliance with the #JCPOA does not reproduce the benefits that that agreement achieved"

That's not surprising given the bleak picture pained by the IAEA's new report 1/
The current IAEA monitoring situation is particularly serious. In addition to Iran's refusal to official clarify if the February 2021 special monitoring arrangement is still in place, Tehran has not responded to requests by the IAEA to access remote surveillance equipment. 2/
Under the Feb 2021 special arrangement, this equipment is recording information that will be given the IAEA if the JCPOA is restored. The data will ideally allow the IAEA to maintain knowledge about Iran's nuclear activities during the period when Iran limited inspector access.3/
Read 20 tweets
#BREAKING Iran's Khamenei says experience shows 'trusting West does not work'
#UPDATE Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday that the outgoing government's experience of engaging with world powers including the United States shows that "trusting the West does not work"
#BREAKING US tying Iran deal return to 'future' talks on missiles, region: Khamenei
Read 4 tweets
Surely, @QuincyInst’s latest paper will cause some minds in DC to explode

@Matthew_petti & I test the DC analysis that a single "bad actor" - invariably aligned against the US - accounts for most of the region's ailments. If it only was this simple…>>…
Our quantitative and qualitative study published today shows that there is a set of powerful states who all are ROUGHLY EQUALLY INTERVENTIONIST. There is no one outlier - whether Iran, Libya, or Iraq - who more than the others is responsible for regional instability.>>
Six states have been the most interventionist: Iran, Israel, Qatar, Saudi, Turkey & UAE. Iran is highly interventionist but not an outlier. The others are often equally interventionist — and at times even more so. UAE & Turkey have actually recently surpassed Iran.>>
Read 9 tweets
This move will likely remove some 20% enriched material from Iran's gas stockpile, which could increase breakout. But that is a short-term, short-sighed benefit. Uranium metal production is a violation of the #IranDeal and Iran will gain irreversible knowledge from the process.
Unfortunate that the Biden administration has not re-issued waivers for JCPOA-required nonpro projects that Trump canceled, like the import of fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. Harder for Iran to justify this move as necessary when it can import TRR fuel without penalty.
It’s also unfortunate that Iran is continuing to esclate and ractchet up its violations of the deal admist talks to restore the JCPOA. Further violations by Iran risk prolonging and disrupting talks in Vienna to restore the nuclear deal.
Read 3 tweets
I finally listened to the whole 3:11 hours of #Iran's foreign minister @JZarif 's leaked interview (which is from an apparently 7-hour whole), part of the oral history interviews done by Sayeed Leylaz with all cabinet ministers of Hasan Rouhani's administration

Some points:
Others have discussed the leak in detail but thought I'd share some points from them that were of interest to myself
Zarif is unequivocal, and says repeatedly, that not just in foreign ministry but in all affairs of the country, what he called 'Meydan' (the battlefield), clearly an euphemism for the IRGC, rules the roost . This is quite significant
Read 27 tweets
News of Iraqi-brokered talks between Saudi & Iran is a VERY BIG DEAL. Not just because the two sides are talking, but WHY they have started talks. I explain here how the US's military disengagement is incentivizing countries to pursue their own diplomacy…
In January 2020, I wrote a controversial piece for @ForeignPolicy arguing that the US's military involvement in the region has incentivized US partners to be more reckless and destabilizing.>>…
When that involvement reduced, good things emerged. I argued Trump's refusal to go to war with Iran over the attacks on Saudi oil fields, prompted Saudi to both engage in its own diplomacy with Iran and reduce aggression in Yemen.>>
Read 13 tweets
Told @dwnews that Netanyahu is not intensifying his attacks on Iran because he fears the Vienna diplomacy, but because he fears they will succeed.

For him, attacking Iran is a win-win. He pays no price for it, all the while undermining diplomacy and increasing the risk of war.
For Netanyahu to attack Iran while Sec. Def. Austin is arriving in Israel shows that the Biden admin's strategy of appeasing Netanyahu in hope that it will prevent him from sabotaging Iran diplomacy is not working.
Bibi's biggest fear is not an Iranian bomb, but a nuclear deal that checks Iran's program and allows the US to check out - militarily - from the Middle East.

Netanyahu, Saudi, UAE want the US permanently stuck in the Middle East - and the #IranDeal is a threat to that.
Read 4 tweets
I saw @DavidTafuri’s sober analysis of the negotiations w #Iran on @FoxNews. Where Netanyahu is right about a deal threatening #Israel is that at this point any deal that allows the regime to enrich uranium is too great a danger. 1/x
We’ve already seen how glacially slow the IAEA is to react to new evidence and how incomplete their picture is about known nuclear sites. We know there are multiple ways the regime has cheated, years before Trump left the deal. Of course Iran will cheat again. 2/x
We’ve already seen Europe decide that almost none of that matters. What they care about is inking trade deals w the regime. #Israel can’t count on them to act when they should. 3/x
Read 9 tweets
1/ Remember this NYT-Administration
Collaborative leak on the #Saviz
"Israel-Iran Sea Skirmishes Escalate as Mine Damages Iranian Military Ship"
It is so dangerously wrong & stupid on many levels. The Administration official who outed Israel...…
2/ Administration official who "outed" Israel gave legitimacy to Iranian retaliation & regional escalation.

NYT called #saviz a "military" ship. It was registered and presented itself as a civilian cargo ship. A more correct description would be "pirate" ship.

The official...
3/ The NYT/official said the #Saviz sabotage was timed to coincide with the US resumption of the #Irandeal negotiations in Vienna.

Balderdash! If #israeli naval commandos were responsible, such a mission 1500 km from Israel would have had months of planning, a ship/sub in ..
Read 4 tweets
/THREAD/ Very good and welcomed news on the #IranDeal!

Given the deadlock and the disappointing pace of movement in the first weeks of Biden’s term. Here are a few thoughts on why it finally has happened and where we will go from here.>>
2. Privately, White House officials admit that how they fumbled the Iran file earlier on (my words, not theirs). But things have changed, the message is, and the US is now moving full speed toward a JCPOA return. We are now seeing the first signs supporting this narrative. >>
3. Over the past weeks, however, mistrust between the two sides has grown. The Iranians have watched in dismay how Biden has messaged that the JCPOA is not a priority and how coordination with Israel and assuaging hawks in Congress were. >>
Read 19 tweets
A disaster thanks to the #IranDeal architects: Delaying changes in Iran, allowed the regime to sign a Soviet-style "25 year cooperation agreement" with China: strategic, military, trade etc. Tehran is now much better protected. This disaster is on the shoulders of Obama-Biden..
They knew about the #Iran-#China 25 years "Soviet-Style" Cooperation Agreement. Our intelligence, foreign policy teams, military, businesses, knew, yet the #Biden Adm was still racing towards the #IranDeal while #Beijing & #Tehran were producing their deal!

How can that be? 🤨
The @nytimes is "warning" that the #ChinaIranDeal will weaken US influence in the Middle East."

No kidding! The #NewYorkTimes was a major promoter of #IranDeal which allowed the #IranRegime to sign a deal with China. US "mainstream" media is morally responsible for the new axis.
Read 12 tweets
Read 126 tweets

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