Great Influenza Pandemic arose in 3 main waves, the first in spring 1918, the second and most deadly from September 1918 to January 1919, and the third from February 1919 through the remainder of the year (with some countries having a fourth wave in 1920). voxeu.org/article/corona…
2/ The 2 initial waves coincided with the final year of World War I (1918), which helped to spread the infection across countries. An unusual feature of the pandemic was the high mortality among young adults without pre-existing medical conditions.
3/ It also killed a number of famous people, including sociologist Max Weber, artist Gustav Klimt, and Frederick Trump, the grandfather of the current US president.
Survivors included @greateconomists Friedrich Hayek, entrepreneur Walt Disney, and US President Woodrow Wilson.
Survivors included @greateconomists Friedrich Hayek, entrepreneur Walt Disney, and US President Woodrow Wilson.
4/ Flu mortality varied greatly across countries, with some countries seeing very low rates. Highest rate by far is for India, cumulating to 5.2%. The US had a cumulative death rate of 0.5%, with an associated number of deaths of 550,000.
5/ Adding up by country & inflating to the world’s population yields total flu deaths of 26.4 million in 1918, 9.4m in 1919, 3.1m in 1920, for a world total of 39m over 1918-1920.
As shares of population: 1.38% for 1918, 0.49% for 1919, 0.16% for 1920; sum of death rates is 2%.
As shares of population: 1.38% for 1918, 0.49% for 1919, 0.16% for 1920; sum of death rates is 2%.
7/ For the Great Influenza Pandemic, a commonly quoted figure is that roughly 1/3 of the world’s population was infected. If accurate, a mortality rate of 2% for overall population would be mortality rate of 6% for infected population. But has to be regarded as highly speculative
8/ Research focused on macroeconomic disasters (real per capita GDP or consumption declines by more than 10%) suggested that pandemic may have been 4th most important negative macroeconomic shock for world since 1870 along with WWII, Great Depression of early 1930s, World War I
9/ Great Influenza Pandemic is estimated to have reduced real per capita GDP and consumption of the typical country by 6.0% and 8.1%, respectively.
WWI is associated with declines in GDP and consumption by 8.4% and 9.9%, respectively.
WWI is associated with declines in GDP and consumption by 8.4% and 9.9%, respectively.
10/ For typical country, stock returns estimated to be negatively impacted by 26% & 19% respectively by flu & war deaths
For bill returns, negative effects were 14% & 13%
Probably driven in part by strongly positive effects of the Great Influenza Pandemic & WWI on inflation rates
For bill returns, negative effects were 14% & 13%
Probably driven in part by strongly positive effects of the Great Influenza Pandemic & WWI on inflation rates
