Watching CA, IL, PA, & other states order blanket lockdowns covering the entire state & hearing constant rumors of Gov ordering it here I started wondering if it made sense. So I tweeted this, “exacerbate” is prolly too strong, but I do have doubts (this will be long, sorry)
First, there’s two major examples of effective control of the virus: China & South Korea. They went about things in what looks like very different ways, but if you look at the entirety of their efforts there are a lot of similarities.
Biggest difference, China locked down & South Korea did not. In China, especially in Hubei Province and Wuhan there was a draconian lockdown (welding doors shut & boarding up people in houses) - we all saw the videos of authoritarian power used to its fullest.
However, they also did a lot more than just making people prisoners in their homes. They were also extremely engaged in testing (not just using tests for CV19 but simpler measures like taking fever checks). They also were aggressive in isolating people.
Many of the scary videos of people being stuffed in the back of trucks was very aggressive isolation of people suspected of being infected. Have a fever? Contact tracing identifies close contact w/ someone who has it? You’re not going home, you’re going to quarantine.
At quarantine centers they did further sorting & isolation based on your conditions. Close contact with someone sick but no fever - you go there. You have a fever you go there. Fever patients tested for the flu & bacterial infection, tests come back negative? CT scan.
CT scan shows CV19 symptoms? CV19 test & off to hospital dedicated to only CV19 patients to limit they spread within the hospitals & to medical staff. Clear progression & triage enforced with the efficiency and muscle of totalitarian jackboots in PPE.
They also used cellphone data and over 1500 people to track and contact trace as many cases as possible. People traced to have close contact, picked up and isolated. Early on they didn’t do all this & they saw their numbers go exponential. They needed to create infrastructure.
This is a good time to step in for some throat clearing:
1) the Chinese numbers are bullshit
2) they completely covered up the crisis early on costing everyone time
3) not advocating for authoritarianism
4) the Chinese numbers are bullshit
1) the Chinese numbers are bullshit
2) they completely covered up the crisis early on costing everyone time
3) not advocating for authoritarianism
4) the Chinese numbers are bullshit
South Korea was very different. They’re a well functioning democracy that couldn’t rely on totalitarian tactics. They were smart. They saw epidemic in China & started stockpiling test kits. Testing, testing, testing and more testing is how they got on top of CV19. No lockdown.
Koreans did so much testing that they caught cases early & isolated patients early. They didn’t see their healthcare system collapse because they didn’t have people flooding into the ER with symptoms to be tested. They vigorously traced each case.
Korea also leveraged technology to monitor people who were supposed to be isolated - geofencing and specifically developed apps. They also created apps for those not identified so that they could track their own location data to see if it matched to someone who tested positive.
So what did both China & South Korea do to combat and get on top of the virus? Lots of testing, lots of contact tracing, effective isolation. How they did that was very different & which one is most likely to work here?
So that brings us to Italy. National Quarantine since March 9th. Their trying to follow the Chinese model of shut everything down. Everyone inside. They just had to extend their quarantine & crackdown harder. Why? It’s not working. Cases & deaths still are rising.
Italy tried implementing the Chinese total lockdown but they don’t have the authoritarian power to enforce it (cell phone data shows 40% of people in Lombardy - hardest hit defy the lockdown & still mill about).
Italy has done none of the other things China did for their lockdown to be effective; testing, isolation, contact tracing. A decree from the government to stay home isn’t enough. It’s not even the part of the equation that works.
The cost to Italy for their forced quarantine? Complete destruction of their economy. Shutting down businesses keeps people from working but it doesn’t keep them home. So cases & deaths keep rising and the economy is ruined. That’s failure.
So that brings us back home. The entire state of California is locked down; adopting the Chinese model. As of yesterday California (pop 40 million) has run 25,000 tests. South Korea tests 15,000 per day. No testing no contact tracing no isolation = failure just like Italy.
And just like Italy you are torching your economy statewide. Does there need to be a blanket quarantine in California? Maybe but you’re not testing enough to know. What we do know is there are areas that most definitely should, other areas?? That’s kind of iffy. 
There has to be a balance of of fighting the virus, flattening the curve, and also avoiding triggering Great Depression 2.0. When all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail. We need a scalpel; be smarter, be more focused, quarantine where warranted. Test, test, test.
Say Ricketts puts a statewide ban in place, real world example: Buffalo Co has2 cases, family members, isolated, got it in CO. I have a closing on Mon in Kearney. Lockdown = no closing. I don’t get paid, realtors no pay, title company no pay, client no house. No Uhaul, etc etc
That’s an example, not about me, we’re a dual income family and we’ll be fine my wife is a nurse she’ll still be working. There will be 1000’s of these. Should Kearney lockdown now? Omaha w/ community spread, yes. Chadron? No. Statewide blanket quarantine makes no sense.
We’l never get ahead of this without testing, lots of testing, contact tracing & isolation. Lockdown or not, doesn’t matter. China & S Korea show that’s what works. Italy shows quarantine without it is doomed to fail.
@threadreaderapp unroll please
