Thread by @Sheheryarbanuri

(1/n) Lots of discussion on a possible lockdown in Pakistan.

I have to say I agree with @ImranKhanPTI on this. The lockdown is a wealthy country solution implemented to reduce the pressure on their healthcare systems.

in.news.yahoo.com/cannot-impose-…

(2/n) Point 1: Health capacity in Pakistan is far lower than the rest of the world. Here are some rough indicators (World Bank data):

Hospital beds per 1,000 people (2011):
UK: 2.9
World: 2.7
Pakistan: 0.6

Physicians per 1,000 people (2015):
UK: 2.78
World: 1.5
Pak: 0.98

(3/n) Point 2: Pakistan has a poverty problem, that is very different from the developed world:

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (% of pop.):
UK: 0.1
World: 10.0
Pakistan: 3.9

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of pop.) (2015):
Pak: 24.3
Indonesia: 11.2

(4/n) The last statistic is important: nearly a quarter of the population is estimated to be living in poverty. Bottom line: they don't work, they don't eat. They don't eat, they die.

And the point of the lockdown is to reduce the spread so that hospitals can cope.

(5/n) The health capacity figures indicate that there is potentially no way to reduce the spread of the virus such that the health system can cope with the spread, without increasing health capacity tremendously.

(6/n) Point 3: Wealthy governments are not implementing lockdowns in isolation. The UK, for example, has also announced mortgage holidays, and wage compensation (80% of wages) to smooth the effect on those that are adversely affected by the lockdown.

(7/n) Those calling for a lockdown in Pakistan are surely well meaning. It is important to preserve life at all costs. However, unless there is a package of reforms (that Pakistan is seemingly unable to deliver), a lockdown will also kill people. Possibly many more people.

(8/n) There are no easy solutions here, but following policies of wealthy countries is surely not the answer. The only real way to combat this is through substantially increasing health resources, providing support for the poor, all with money we don't have.

(9/n) What is needed is clear heads and looking beyond "easy solutions"... Here is hoping we do not forget that we have both resource and poverty issues that need bespoke solutions.

#Pakthink #Pakistan