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Look here is the problem and I'll speak slowly for everyone who wants to make it political: The world has seen an unheard of surge in demand. Most countries don't actually make the stuff. You don't just increase output 10x in a month. That's not reality. Guess which country does?
I can absolutely confirm a couple of things from first hand knowledge. A) Medical goods market globally right now is a blood sport. B) China probably largest global manufacturer of basic medical and pharmaceuticals. They are cutting knife in back deals with countries needing it
This is the reality of globalized concentrated supply chains based in an adversarial country. This is the world you wanted, enjoy your own creation.
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Social Distancing Balding 大老板
@BaldingsWorld
There is one major difference between the Imperial study predicting 1m US dead and Oxford study saying 50% of the UK has already been exposed. I didn't want to lambast the Imperial study, though there key assumption is absolutely dead wrong to even a casual China watcher 1/n
The Imperial College study makes the key assumption, and any basic China watcher would know this is wrong not to mention anyone that had been following corona in China, that officially confirmed cases closely matched the total spread of corona in the population. 2/n
Put another way, China data is reliable and if you have corona in China you've been counted. Officially their paper allows for some moderate undercounting. That is how they arrive at the possibility the virus can continue to spread so much further and this is how they 3/n
Read 6 tweets
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Social Distancing Balding 大老板
@BaldingsWorld
Interesting piece but I suspect main finding more correlative than causative. Research has found population spread in Wuhan likely at least 10x greater than confirmed and suspected cases. This matches what is being found in other countries. 1/n wsj.com/articles/the-w…
This matters ENORMOUSLY because if you think you are tracing the right cases but you only capture 10% of transmitters, you'll never stop the spread. Consequently, quarantining recognized cases is effectively a dead end. The article even clues us in this is what is happening 2/n
"He also said that in recent days he saw a handful of patients who had developed antibodies to the virus without knowingly being infected. That suggested to him that Wuhan might have already developed a level of “herd immunity.”" You aren't getting herd immunity unless big spread
Read 3 tweets
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Social Distancing Balding 大老板
@BaldingsWorld
Let's use a simple example why one needs to be careful reporting mortality rates (and again I'm using simplifying assumptions but it works generally for our purposes and we can add necessary complications). In the US in 2017-2018 flu season 61,000 people are estimated 1/n
To have died from the flu according to the CDC (link below). So what is the mortality rate? Well there were roughly 1m flu tests with (let's assume they are all positive) positive diagnoses. Is that the mortality rate? No. What about the 810k 2/n cdc.gov/flu/about/seas…
Hospitalizations due to the flu? No. What about the 20.7m doctors visits about the flu? No. The CDC produces an estimate of 44.8m SYMPTOMATIC cases of the flu. Let's extend this thinking to corona. (Again simplifying). Right now everyone getting tested in many places 3/n
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicome
My hot take of the day is that 2018-19 were #actually banner years for trade economists. Nobody bats 1.000, but on tariffs, trade balances, diversion vs reshoring, uncertainty, manufacturing, currency, etc, the economists* were generally right. /1

*real ones, not pundits
Whether this matters for US politics is entirely a different matter, but the folks who *actually study this stuff for a living* have a LOT to look back on over the last 2 yrs and say (politely) "just as predicted" (aka "told ya so")
Eg:
✅Tariff incidence & downstream effects
✅Retaliation & exclusions
✅Tariffs & currency (USD/RMB/etc)
✅Trade uncertainty's US/global effects
✅Bilateral disputes' regional impact
✅Supply chains, reshoring, trade diversion
✅Trade balances & tariffs/taxes/mfg output
✅Steel
Read 5 tweets
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David Fickling
@davidfickling
Here's a thread about how LED lightbulbs, underexposed photos and colonialism suggest an explanation for the Fermi paradox -- the mystery of why there's no sign of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe:
Enrico Fermi was one of the most brilliant physicists of the 20th century -- the first to realize the power that could be unleashed by splitting atoms, and (with Edward Teller, on the left) a key architect of the nuclear bomb.
He was working on developing the hydrogen bomb with a group of fellow scientists in 1950 at Los Alamos, New Mexico, when he had a lightbulb moment:

Where are all the aliens?
Read 47 tweets
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Ositadimma Amakeze
@OsitaAmakeze
Do you think we earn this: 21st Century skills intervention & Technical/Vocational Education Intervention as #NGO in schools?
If yes:
Nominate here: tepcentre.com/awards/
Use #TeamYowamca as Name of Implementing Organisation
Email: yowamca@gmail.com
Facebook: O'star Yowamca
Read 104 tweets
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Krish Ashok
@krishashok
A few days back, scientists changed the official definition of the kilogram, and it’s quite an amazing story. Here is a video that gets into the physics of how it’s now defined Since that video is rather sciency, here is my attempt at an #ELI5
So mankind has needed to measure stuff for a long while, particularly after the invention of agriculture, which resulted in the growth of cities & trade. The question “how many” necessitated a number system, & most neolithic civilizations had some form of numeracy
The question “how long” was also quite common. Land had to be measured, pyramids had to be built, and stone blocks had to be pretty precise in dimensions, so most civilizations had their own anthropic (human based) units of distance, like cubit, palm, span and foot.
Read 31 tweets
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K. Louise Neufeld🦉⚖️🇺🇸
@ninaandtito
Ok so this provotwatsiya from @RandPaul is rather telling. Wanna know why? Bec the people of Venezuela have been robbed by a vast global corruption scheme aka #TransnationalOrganizedCrime-which connects to Rand’s Russian bosses. Let’s take a look at some of the fuckery, shall we?
It’s also amusing that @EdRogersDC retweeted it, given where his money comes from (HINT: Ed reps a whole bunch of other countries that steal from their people-like Azerbaijan!)
So Venezuela has a giant issue with their state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, aka PDVSA.
It is alleged that $11bn has “gone missing” from PDVSA. reuters.com/article/us-ven…
Read 16 tweets

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