We’ve heard the horror stories.
Resource-strapped hospitals in places like Italy have had to make devastating choices: Which patient can be saved? Who should be left to die?
As the coronavirus spreads across the nation, will the same thing happen in Florida? (THREAD)
Resource-strapped hospitals in places like Italy have had to make devastating choices: Which patient can be saved? Who should be left to die?
As the coronavirus spreads across the nation, will the same thing happen in Florida? (THREAD)
Experts project that a surge in COVID-19 cases will leave Florida hospitals scrambling for beds. hrld.us/3btscVk
In Florida alone, at least 688,000 people over 18 are projected to need hospitalization from the disease, according to an analysis by the Harvard Global Health Institute and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Although the outbreak is currently concentrated in Broward and Miami-Dade counties, the greatest threat to hospital resources could be in different areas of the state.
The calculations by Harvard show that if 20 percent of the population of Florida contracts COVID-19 within six months, hospitals across the state will be overrun with more patients than they have beds.
Even if 20 percent spread occurs over 12 months, without adding beds or freeing up beds by limiting non-essential surgeries, the vast majority of Florida hospitals will still be over capacity, according to the Harvard model.
If the timeline of infection can be slowed to 18 months, most Florida hospitals will have enough beds.
But hospitals around Ocala, Hudson, and Tallahassee will still be at or over current capacity if they don’t increase the number of available beds, the analysis shows.
But hospitals around Ocala, Hudson, and Tallahassee will still be at or over current capacity if they don’t increase the number of available beds, the analysis shows.
And it could be even worse.
A Harvard epidemiologist has predicted between 20 and 60 percent of the adult population will get COVID-19 at some point, meaning the maps represent a conservative projection of the strain on Florida hospitals.
A Harvard epidemiologist has predicted between 20 and 60 percent of the adult population will get COVID-19 at some point, meaning the maps represent a conservative projection of the strain on Florida hospitals.
This project was done in collaboration with @propublica and the Harvard Global Health Institute. See ProPublica’s original reporting here: hrld.us/2WEdDdj
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Our whole newsroom is working to keep readers informed — but we need your help.
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Our whole newsroom is working to keep readers informed — but we need your help.
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