1. This right wing media meme that Neil Ferguson "walked back" the Imperial College report's findings in Britain are utterly and completely false
2. The argument rests on the idea that Ferguson's Imperial team predicted that Britain could have as many as 500,000 deaths, but recently said that deaths there likely wouldn't exceed 20,000.
3. Except the original model predicted that a total as low as 20,000 was possible in the UK — if Britain changed course toward a more aggressive policy. Don't take my word from it; here's the table of projected deaths from the report. You can see huge variation based on response 
4. The reason for Ferguson's new estimate is that Britain has moved toward a much, much more restrictive policy than it had in place earlier — alongside beefing up of NHS capacity.
5. Places like The Federalist are using this to make it seem like it's totally OK to open up society — don't believe the experts, their alarmist models are lying to you, Trump is right.
Except it actually proves the opposite: When you listen to the experts, thousands are saved.
Except it actually proves the opposite: When you listen to the experts, thousands are saved.
6. Sourcing here is the New Scientist piece on Ferguson's parliamentary testimony, which you can read here: newscientist.com/article/223857…
And the original Imperial College model, which you can read here: imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
And the original Imperial College model, which you can read here: imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
7. And here’s Ferguson himself explaining what he meant. Don’t hold your breath for any corrections from pro-Trump media though
