Thread (Update 25 March)
1 Updated modelling of COVID-19 "projected" case growth for USA & India based on data for the past few days.
1 Updated modelling of COVID-19 "projected" case growth for USA & India based on data for the past few days.
2
USA: 86038 actual vs 85817 (my projected no) [~0.25% delta]
INDIA: 726 actual vs 764 (my projected no) [~5% delta]
USA: 86038 actual vs 85817 (my projected no) [~0.25% delta]
INDIA: 726 actual vs 764 (my projected no) [~5% delta]
3 USA: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be at ~345,000+
"Future projected" values are in black color/white font.
"Future projected" values are in black color/white font.
4 India: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be ~1100+
Note: "Future projected" values are in black color/white font.
Note: "Future projected" values are in black color/white font.
5 No slowdown in the no. of raw new cases in USA where the rate continues on it's upward trend like before. USA expected to >100k cases by tomorrow.
6 The rate for India shows nascent signs of slowing down (i.e. bending the curve). Now it is premature to celebrate as any new massive cluster outbreak could throw this off but encouraging signs for sure.
7 To see how the curve "has been bent" See projection of cases from Mar 20 onwards if rate was the same vs slightly bending it downwards & the case counts henceforth.
8 Again want to reiterate that this is provided no massive new clusters of community transmission are detected. Any such discovery will mean that the curve with snap back up again once more. So the sign of bending the curve is to be treated with extreme caution at this moment.
9 Even if the curve is bent downwards this will be a long fight where sustained efforts will be needed by all to ensure that the number is brought down to very low & manageable numbers.
