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Thread (Update 22th March)
1 Updated modelling of COVID-19 "projected" case growth for USA & India based on data for the past few days.
2 One of the very good days for my modelling where both USA & India numbers held up extremely well

USA: 35214 actual vs 35414 (my projected no) [~0.5% delta]
INDIA: 421 actual vs 418 (my projected no) [~0.7% delta]
3 USA: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be at ~141,000+
"Future projected" values are in black color/white font.
4 India: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be ~2500+
Note: "Future projected" values are in black color/white font.
5 NY which accounts for ~half of USA cases is slightly slowing down which might just help US to "bend the curve" in a positive direction (i.e. lower). However concern is that other states could explode negating these small gains.
6 However the large base for USA means that one should still see big increase in new cases still (but hopefully at slower rate vs just a few days ago)
7 The rate for India might be on a slight uptick and also has similar problem of large base causing more raw number of case increases for the foreseeable future.
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Mohal Joshi
@MohalJoshi
Thread (Update 15th March)
1 Updated modelling of COVID-19 "projected case growth" for USA & India based on existing data for the past few days.
2 Here is the "future projection" for COVID-19 cases in the USA. Actual number of 3804 is very close to my "projected number" of 3854. This mean growth in cases continues at current pace (no slowdown yet)
Note: "Future projected" values are in black color/white font
3 Here is the "future projection" for COVID-19 cases in the India. Actual number of 110 is very close to "projected number" of 107. This mean growth in cases continues at current pace (no slowdown yet)
Note: "Future projected" values are in black color/white font
Read 4 tweets
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Mohal Joshi
@MohalJoshi
1. Complete opposite of LS2019 where opposition having no credible challenger to project vs Modi wanted to make it a seat by seat election looking to take advantage of anger against incumbent BJP MPs 👇
2. Can BJP succeed in this strategy that opposition failed at in LS2019? i.e. Not make it personality contest vs Kejriwal as they are not projecting any one as CM and try to fight on a seat by seat basis?
3. BJP won around 1/3 of the vote in 2013 & 2015 VS elections. 2015 saw an AAP sweep (vs hung in 2013) as INC collapsed allowing AAP to capture 54% of the remaining ~2\3 vote%.
Read 6 tweets
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Mohal Joshi
@MohalJoshi
1/n) Thread on India US relations in context of China.
2/n) India's deepening of its ties with US has been due to a result of the Great power competiton that USA faces from China.
3/n) I beleive that India's proximity with USA is INVERSLY PROPOTIONAL to the threat perception that USA faces from China.
Read 11 tweets

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Reza Nasri
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