1. Complete opposite of LS2019 where opposition having no credible challenger to project vs Modi wanted to make it a seat by seat election looking to take advantage of anger against incumbent BJP MPs 👇
2. Can BJP succeed in this strategy that opposition failed at in LS2019? i.e. Not make it personality contest vs Kejriwal as they are not projecting any one as CM and try to fight on a seat by seat basis?
3. BJP won around 1/3 of the vote in 2013 & 2015 VS elections. 2015 saw an AAP sweep (vs hung in 2013) as INC collapsed allowing AAP to capture 54% of the remaining ~2\3 vote%.
4. Taking into account LS vs VS vote% over past 12 months BJP vote% in VS has been 20-25% lower than LS. So taking that into account 25% depreciation factor if BJP can crack 40+% vote% then only BJP can make it a contest.
5. However if BJP stays stagnant around 33% vote% level seen in past VS elections then their only hope will be a paradoxical revival of INC which can then split the non BJP vote% with possibly severly denting AAP in the process.
6. @threadreaderapp unroll
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