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An expert survey conducted ~2 weeks ago forecasted 200K deaths in the U.S., although with a *very* wide range of possibilities. Revised slightly upward to 246K this week. But Dr. Fauci's estimate of 100K+ deaths is broadly in line with the consensus.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/exper…
**HOWEVER**: We are not just inert objects here, and the choices we make could make a huge difference, as the experts think anywhere from around 36K to 1.1m deaths is highly plausible. That's 30-fold difference in possible outcomes.
Important to note that what's happened *so far* is largely baked in based on (bad) choices the U.S. made a week to a month ago, or longer. The data lags our actions to an extent that folks don't seem to fully appreciate. But making better choices *now* *will* pay dividends later.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The media narrative was **extremely terrible** for Biden when he came back to win South Carolina by 30 points after having been tied in the polls days earlier.
That SC win created a lot of momentum/favorable media heading into Super Tuesday, and Super Tuesday created further momentum. But Biden really earned that SC landslide by having the trust of black voters and non-college whites who are key in SC (+ Clyburn's endorsement).
Only two candidates (Biden and Bernie) ever really had a mutli-racial, multi-class coalition, which is usually how win the D primary. Of those 2, only Biden really built bridges to the rest of the party, which is usually how you win *any* party nomination, Trump an exception.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Another issue with charts drawn on a log scale is that they literally compress what has been happening *recently* when the stakes are very high (10s of thousands) while placing a lot of visual emphasis on what the slope was when you were going from say 10 cases or deaths to 100.
The US's slope has flattened quite a bit in recent days, especially in New York. Not necessarily flattened any more or less than you'd expect. But it has flattened. And it's quite hard to pick that up from those charts.
To put this in a super dorky way, the shape that an epidemic curve takes is not actually exponential but sigmoidal (S-shaped / it levels off at some point) and putting a sigmoid on a log scale makes it harder to see when you hit the inflection point and start leveling off.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Democrats will have plenty of time to cast blame on Trump's coronavirus response later, and it seems very likely that they'll cast lots of it given that it's an election year. It's not at all clear that casting more blame *now* will make their casting more effective in the fall.
Maybe the biggest bias among people who are professionally involved in politics (media, operatives, lawmakers, commentators) is to assume the public is always in an "on" mode, constantly receptive to political messaging and closely following political news cycles, when it isn't.
It's also telling that the campaign that gave by far the fewest shits about winning the daily news cycle, Biden's, is now winning the primary in a landslide despite being treated skeptically at every turn by exactly this group of plugged-in people.
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Drew Linzer
@DrewLinzer
I want to share some of the results of our new coronavirus survey, out today, because the impact on people's lives, across the country, is already staggering. Not just health; it's work, income, and how and where it's felt. (1/?)

The full report is here: civiqs.com/reports/2020/3…
As of 3/30, 94% of Americans are practicing social distancing. That's good! It's also a huge number and highlights how widespread the awareness of the crisis is. I have been doing survey research for 20+ years and almost never see percentages this high on anything. (2/?)
The flip side of massive social distancing is that 67% of Americans right now are spending nearly every day at home, leaving only for exercise or essential items. Repeat: Two-thirds of the country right now is spending nearly every day locked at home. (3/?)
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Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
It is possible to compare the profiles of COVID-19 with the “Spanish” flu of 1918, which wiped out almost 1/3 of the world’s population.

The comparison is alarming, because if anything, the current profile of COVID-19 is actually *worse* than the “Spanish” flu. 1/8
The virulence of a viral disease is a function of two factors: its case fatality rate (CFR) and its transmission rate. 2/8
The “Spanish” flu had an estimated transmission rate of 1 to 2.2 persons, and a CFR of about 2.5%. 3/8
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Calibrate intuition from math. Assume *roughly*:

2% fatality rate (JAMA)
~4 weeks from infection to death for fatal cases (WHO)
7 day doubling time (NEJM)

Then a report of one death today would mean 50 infected four weeks ago — and 800 cases today.
These numbers are VERY approximate but help calibrate intuition. For every 1 reported death, there can be 100-1000X as many cases out there.

REFERENCES

1) Review of JAMA study: cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…

2) WHO: who.int/docs/default-s…

3) NEJM article: nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
You can & should plug in your own numbers there if you think fatality rates are lower, doubling rate is different, etc.

But one robust result is that under many reasonable assumptions, if you see one death there is a large right tail on estimate of how many cases are out there.
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kaela⁷ ♏
@BTSFactory
Taekook AU ♦️ Crimson

Taehyung just wanted a good story for the university newspaper...

He never thought he would find himself captured by the gang he was investigating or escaping with the help of rival biker gang leader, Jeongguk

...and to think, that was only the beginning
Credit and big thank you to my bunnie @hobi_hunny, for the amazing moodboard and to my saviour @sugadtae, for being the best beta I have ever had

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Christopher di Armani 🇨🇦
@ThatLibertyGuy
THREAD: Bill C-71 Canadian Senate Standing Committee on Security and National Defence (SECD) to hear from witnesses today.

Agenda and Link to Live Stream
:sencanada.ca/en/Committees/…

CPAC TV Live Stream:
cpac.ca/en/direct/sen1…

#StopBillC71 #KillBillC71 #BillC71Book
Dr. Mike Ackermann via video conference. Charles Tayler from Movie Armaments Group up first.
Charles Taylor: Bill C-71 will do nothing to stop drug dealers, gangs or criminals. My staff are all ex-police and military.
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Olufemi Osasona
@OsasDapheel
Many people are too consume with the idea of owning a plot of land so sometimes feel too elated to do due verifications before making payment. In this thread, i will tell you how a survey plan search, an essential land check can save you from land trouble. THREAD👇👇👇
Before i go ahead, it is essential we understand what a survey plan means: A #Survey plan is a document that measures the boundary of a parcel of land to give an accurate measurement and description of that land #RealEstate #LandDebate
The people that handle #Survey issues are Surveyors and they are regulated by the office of the Surveyor general in #Lagos as it relates to survey issues in Lagos. #RealEstate
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