What this suggests is a systematic failure to absorb and act upon existing information rapidly and effectively rather than a complete lack of knowledge of what ought to be done.
hbr.org/2020/03/lesson…
hbr.org/2020/03/lesson…
Recognize your cognitive biases.
The most effective time to take strong action is extremely early, when the threat appears to be small — or even before there are any cases.
The most effective time to take strong action is extremely early, when the threat appears to be small — or even before there are any cases.
The systematic inability to listen to experts highlights the trouble that leaders — and people in general — have figuring out how to act in dire, highly complex situations where there’s no easy solution.
Avoid partial solutions.
A second lesson that can be drawn from the Italian experience is the importance of systematic approaches and the perils of partial solutions.
A second lesson that can be drawn from the Italian experience is the importance of systematic approaches and the perils of partial solutions.
In normal times, this gradually increased restrictions approach would probably be considered prudent and perhaps even wise. In this situation, it backfired; it was inconsistent with the rapid exponential spread of the virus.
Asia 👉
Testing is effective when it’s combined with rigorously contact tracing, and tracing is effective as long as it is combined with an effective communication system that collects and disseminates information on the movements of potentially infected people, and so forth.
Testing is effective when it’s combined with rigorously contact tracing, and tracing is effective as long as it is combined with an effective communication system that collects and disseminates information on the movements of potentially infected people, and so forth.
Learning is critical
In our view, accelerating the diffusion of knowledge that is emerging from different policy choices (in Italy and elsewhere) should be considered a top priority at a time when “every country is reinventing the wheel,” as several scientists told us.
In our view, accelerating the diffusion of knowledge that is emerging from different policy choices (in Italy and elsewhere) should be considered a top priority at a time when “every country is reinventing the wheel,” as several scientists told us.
Data documenting the spread and effects of the virus should be as standardized as possible across regions & countries & follow the progression of the virus & its containment at both a macro (state) & micro (hospital) level. The need for micro-level data cannot be underestimated.
A Different Decision-Making Approach
It is essential to adopt one that is systemic, prioritizes learning, and is able to quickly scale successful experiments and identify and shut down the ineffective ones. Yes, this a tall order. But given the stakes, it has to be done.
It is essential to adopt one that is systemic, prioritizes learning, and is able to quickly scale successful experiments and identify and shut down the ineffective ones. Yes, this a tall order. But given the stakes, it has to be done.
