A: “There is no going back (to normal). The only way out is through.” This @TheAtlantic article summarizes key steps as the United States enters the next phases of this #pandemic.
(2/5) 1) Reopening – We are currently in #lockdown: the last line of defense in slowing the spread. Re-opening depends on sustainable infrastructure for #testing and health services, both of which have not been achieved to date. We are still far shy of what is needed to reopen.
(3/5) 2) Recalibration – Reopening will be very complicated. We should expect resurgence of infections and the need to maintain many aspects of #SocialDistancing well into the future. The remainder of 2020 and likely 2021 will require us to rethink how our society functions.
(4/5) Recalibration requires tools to track new clusters of infection, massive national investment in public health #Tracing, and new workflows.
(3/5) 3) Reinforcements – Countermeasures such as medications that decrease severity of illness and vaccinations will help, but they will take months-years to develop. These measures reinforce our response to #COVID19, but none will cure the virus or its effects on society.
(4/5) 4) Resilience – “We must have discipline to face the brutal facts with the unwavering faith we can prevail.” Our trek through the next months will require #solidarity and individual sacrifice for the sake of all.
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).