This is Prof Edmunds on 28/4.
Data on NHS “surge capacity" was not pre-loaded within Imperial College's modelling & was only populated btw 1st - 10th March.
See @neil_ferguson at Health Select Committee on 25/3 (from 2mins). youtube.com/watch?v=oRfU_M…
What were these ‘sources’?
“I don’t know if that’s correct. I can't remember off the top of my head.”
Could it be the govt & SAGE took a gamble on this worst case scenario data being unlikely...& got it horribly wrong?
@MattHancock says he warned @BorisJohnson about #COVID19 at the beginning of January.
He says he remembers thinking at PMQs in Februrary: ‘Nobody’s asking about the single biggest issue that's about to come & hit us.’
“Meaningless political soundbites promising to recruit 18 000 contact tracers, test 200 000 people a day, or invest in unjustified contact tracing apps, divert focus & could lead to more deaths.” @bmj_latest
bmj.com/content/369/bm…
Prof Ferguson resigned after a story broke revealing a month before he’d broke social distancing rules.
How is it possible that they’d calculate this but not bother looking at NHS capacity?! assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
It also says: “It is a political decision to consider whether to enact stricter measures.” assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The message is about “delay” - no need for shutting pubs/schools etc.
This was the same day as @Peston’s published his No.10-briefed article stating “the govt’s strategy” is #HerdImmunity.
On the same day, @neil_ferguson said “400,000 Briton’s could die from #COVID19”
On 21 February, NERVTAG minutes show govt advisors estimating a death toll of up to 1.3 million.
@JCalvertST: “A number of people in Downing St were concerned the PM just wasn’t taking a lead. We were told that aides were told to cut down documents or he just wouldn't read them.”
This footage of him on his return from 12 days in Kent shows that he was unaware that no #coronavirus testing or tracking was being done on anyone arriving from #COVID19 hotspots such Northern Italy.
His poor grasp on the science & ‘strategy’ is clear (e.g. PMQs 6/5).
Shows on 3 March, hospital demand had been calculated (up to 1.5m non-ICU beds & 200,000 ICU beds) but no NHS capacity overlaid. #BREAKING assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The data table uses a 16.5% ICU rate.
Is this another ‘smoking gun’ in the #HerdImmunityScandal? assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…