Thread by @StefSimanowitz

1/. I’m no scientist so please correct me, but it seems one of the key early errors of the govt’s #COVID19 strategy was the failure to do epidemiological modelling for lockdown until mid-March thereby not providing any alternative ‘design options’.

This is Prof Edmunds on 28/4.

2/. NHS capacity was not understood until it was too late.

Data on NHS “surge capacity" was not pre-loaded within Imperial College's modelling & was only populated btw 1st - 10th March.

See @neil_ferguson at Health Select Committee on 25/3 (from 2mins). youtube.com/watch?v=oRfU_M…

3/. It seems that the "non-pharmaceutical options weren't pre-populated either (they appear to only be developed in February).

Key data wasn't populated by the govt scientific advisory body, NERVTAG, until 21/2/20 despite despite some key data being published many days before.

4/. The first 'modelled & quantified report' for the UK only arrived on 16/3.

NERVTAG only had 3 brief phone conferences in February (totalling only 4.5hrs).

It seems they believed there was plenty of time to model the options to design the best solution to gain herd immunity.

5/. Patrick Vallance claimed on 9/4 that it wasn’t true that modelling for the consequences of lockdown was only begun in mid-March. “We modelled all scenarios throughout February...The modelling came from a variety of sources.”

What were these ‘sources’?

https://twitter.com/Hanksban/status/1248290563096535045/video/1

6/. Vallance was more equivocal when asked on 5/5 if he’d “decided not to model what death rates would be with track & trace model b/c you decided we didn’t have testing capacity?”

“I don’t know if that’s correct. I can't remember off the top of my head.”

7/. Chris Whitty (CMO), repeatedly said the "reasonable worst case’ was unlikely due his hope there'd be a high percentage of asymptomatic/mild cases of #COVID19.

Could it be the govt & SAGE took a gamble on this worst case scenario data being unlikely...& got it horribly wrong?

8/. “I told him right at the start.”

@MattHancock says he warned @BorisJohnson about #COVID19 at the beginning of January.

He says he remembers thinking at PMQs in Februrary: ‘Nobody’s asking about the single biggest issue that's about to come & hit us.’

9/. “The UK was forewarned but nut forearmed.”

“Meaningless political soundbites promising to recruit 18 000 contact tracers, test 200 000 people a day, or invest in unjustified contact tracing apps, divert focus & could lead to more deaths.” @bmj_latest
bmj.com/content/369/bm…

10/. Interviewed on @Channel4News on 14/2, @neil_ferguson told @mattfrei that up to 400,000 British people in the UK could die from #coronavirus.

Prof Ferguson resigned after a story broke revealing a month before he’d broke social distancing rules.

11/. Newly published SAGE document show on 26 February the Reasonable Worst Case Hospitilisation rate was calculated at 3.6 million potential #COVID19 hospital visits.

How is it possible that they’d calculate this but not bother looking at NHS capacity?! assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

12/. The SAGE Meeting the NEXT DAY didn’t mention hospitalisation rates.

SAGE were talking about 60-80% of population getting infected, with no discussion of containment?

They were calculating 500k deaths - and that was without modelling any deaths due to lack of NHS capacity?

13/. The document (26 Feb) clearly states the NHS would be overwhelmed "well before the peak is reached" without drastic interventions.

It also says: “It is a political decision to consider whether to enact stricter measures.” assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

14/. Incredibly at that stage numbers hadn’t been determined from either the epidemiology or the NHS Surge capacity.

Remember Vallance’s famous slide from 3 March? The ‘supply v demand’ sombrero.👇

On 26 February, the Reasonable Worst Case for bed demand was estimated at 3.8m.

15/. On 12 March, the PM talked about “squashing the sombrero”.

The message is about “delay” - no need for shutting pubs/schools etc.

This was the same day as @Peston’s published his No.10-briefed article stating “the govt’s strategy” is #HerdImmunity.

16/. On Valentines Day, the PM & Carrie went to stay in Chevening mansion.

On the same day, @neil_ferguson said “400,000 Briton’s could die from #COVID19”

On 21 February, NERVTAG minutes show govt advisors estimating a death toll of up to 1.3 million.

17/ According to @C4Dispatches, PM & Carrie spent 12 days in Chevening.

@JCalvertST: “A number of people in Downing St were concerned the PM just wasn’t taking a lead. We were told that aides were told to cut down documents or he just wouldn't read them.”

18/. It is clear that @BorisJohnson has never had a strong grip on the science.

This footage of him on his return from 12 days in Kent shows that he was unaware that no #coronavirus testing or tracking was being done on anyone arriving from #COVID19 hotspots such Northern Italy.

19/. Boris Johnson boasted last month: “I don't actually read the scientific papers except in exceptional circumstances, but what I do get is the digest...[Vallance & Whitty] give me the cream of that advice".

His poor grasp on the science & ‘strategy’ is clear (e.g. PMQs 6/5).

20/. The govt have just released a new batch of evidence from SAGE (on Fri evening so they miss the weekend papers)!

Shows on 3 March, hospital demand had been calculated (up to 1.5m non-ICU beds & 200,000 ICU beds) but no NHS capacity overlaid. #BREAKING assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

#BREAKINGNEWS: Newly published SAGE minutes show that the govt KNEW on 25 February - 3 weeks before they claimed - that NHS ICU beds would be overwhelmed!

The data table uses a 16.5% ICU rate.

Is this another ‘smoking gun’ in the #HerdImmunityScandal? assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…