Sanjana Kadyan Profile picture
Jun 1, 2020 22 tweets 20 min read Read on X
COVID-19 is an unparalleled economic crisis in modern history. My colleague @tulsipriya_rk and I have been tracking the macroeconomic effects of it on India’s economy on a weekly basis. Sharing some of the visualisations here in this thread.
#MacroOfCovidIndia Image
Globally, India’s workplace mobility rising relatively faster from a low base since Lockdown 3.0. Mobility levels to retail and recreation still 70% below baseline. #MacroOfCovidIndia @tulsipriya_rk Image
India's mobility to work places, grocery, pharmacy and transit stations picking up since 3rd May while visits to parks, retail and recreation spots remain low. @tulsipriya_rk Image
Electricity generation grew by 10.5% in the week gone by, yet to reach pre-COVID levels. Similar trend for carbon emissions. @tulsipriya_rk Image
While global aviation activity stays muted, India has witnessed revival of domestic flights since 4th May. Retail payments declined sharply in April, both in value and volume terms. @tulsipriya_rk #MacroOfCovidIndia #COVID19India #CoronavirusIndia #economy Image
Household demand for MGNREGA work stronger than ever at 3.5 crore, person days generated rise to 27.6 crore in May. @tulsipriya_rk #MacroOfCovidIndia #COVID19India #economy Image
Early signs of revival of global economic activity coupled with stimulus packages across countries drove the bullish performance of India’s equity markets in the week gone by, led by financial, metal and auto sector. @tulsipriya_rk #COVID19India #economy Image
India’s mandi arrivals of several essential commodities edged closer to previous year levels in the week ending 29th May. Food prices still elevated relative to last year, except for onion and tomato #economy #COVID19 #Macron @tulsipriya_rk Image
Mandi arrivals of potato and onions below last year levels. Onion prices descending for the past four weeks @tulsipriya_rk #COVID19 #Macron Image
Forex reserves soared to record high in the week gone by driven by rising FDI, FPI and equities and sharp decline in crude and gold import bill. Rupee marginally appreciated in the week gone by. Debt outflow spree continued @tulsipriya_rk #economy #COVID19 Image
FPI utilisation in Central G-Secs remained low ar 47.8%. No net purchase/sale of dollar in the week ending May 22 after 2 consecutive weeks of dollar purchase @tulsipriya_rk #COVID19India #MacroOfCovidIndia #economy Image
Petroleum products consumption at record low or 99.29 lakh metric tonnes in April. Crude price rising since early May tracking global cues of demand revival, decreased by 2.5% in week gone by @tulsipriya_rk #MacroOfCovidIndia #COVID19India #economy Image
Global PMI fell to staggering low of 26.5 in April. However, provisional PMI data for advanced countries showed signs of reduced pessimism in May @tulsipriya_rk #MacroofCovidIndia #PMI Image
Subdued consumption demand in April and May witnessed in sharp contraction in vehicle registrations across all vehicle classes @tulsipriya_rk #vahan #economics #COVID19India Image
Bank aversion to lend to commercial sector continued in fortnight ending 8th May @tulsipriya_rk #MacroOfCovid #credit #covid19 Image
Liquidity in surplus with RBI’s array of unconventional and conventional measures like policy rate cuts. Call money rate remained 14 bps below repo on 22nd May @tulsipriya_rk #monetaryPolicy #covid19india Image
Financial conditions eased with corporate yield softening to 7.2% in week gone by. Banks preferred to hold G-Secs with excess SLR standing at 9.6% in fortnight ending 8 May. @tulsipriya_rk #covid19india #monetaryPolicy #economy Image
Centre’s fiscal deficit for FY 2019-20 (PE) increased to Rs. 9.6 lakh crore (4.6% of GDP) largely driven by almost 10% decline in tax revenue compared to last fiscal. G-Sec yields, though low, marginally increased in week gone by. @tulsipriya_rk #fiscal Image
While Centre's gross market borrowings in the week ending 22nd May stood at 1.2 times the amount borrowed last year, net borrowings were half of last year levels. States borrowed more on gross and net basis relative to last year. @tulsipriya_rk #fiscalpolicy Image
Centre has been showing greater reliance on WMA window vis-a-vis states. While Centre's short term borrowings declined in the week ending 22nd May, States increased WMA utilisation. @tulsipriya_rk #fiscalpolicy Image
In response to Covid, Centre’s Aadhaar based direct benefit transfers rose sharply in April 2020, 36.4% higher than last year, to support the vulnerable sections. @tulsipriya_rk #DBT #fiscalpackage Image

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More from @KadyanSanjana

Oct 25, 2020
Crude Indian basket picked up marginally in October. Consumption of petroleum products improved both sequentially and YoY in Sept. diesel and petrol prices, however, declined marginally in Oct over Sept, gold imports decline in Sept while gold prices trade in narrow range
Current Private consumption sentiment remains mixed. While RBI’s current consumer consumer index dipped consistently, next year expectations improve; auto sales and vehicle registrations picked up strongly in Sept over Oct; digital transactions continued to surge.
Credit growth while improving sequentially, stays muted YoY. Business sentiment expectations for next year pick up.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 25, 2020
India’s economic normalisation picking up, resilient recovery both on the domestic and external side in Sep and mid Oct. With the festive season round the corner, we enter a critical behavioral phase in the fight against the pandemic.
Latest India macro-update with
@tulsipriya_rk ImageImageImage
Growth in active cases consistent negative, recovery rate improving- BH,TN, WB,DL,GJ,AP. CFR declining. Healthy testing progress- particularly in Arunachal, Goa, DL, AS, JK, Tripura and TN. Testing now matches global averages with test positivity rate below WHO standard of 8% ImageImageImage
Healthy growth in power consumption, ETC collections and inter and intra E way bills. Augurs well for improved GST collections in upcoming festive months. ImageImageImage
Read 13 tweets
Oct 4, 2020
India’s growth momentum picks up in September.
Check out our latest Macroeconomics of COVID in India series with @tulsipriya_rk
E-Way bills and consequent GST collections alluding to steady recovery as economy unlocks amid headwinds of sustained virus spread and rising prices. ImageImage
Rail freight clocking positive YoY growth for first time since March in August and early Sep, passenger earnings recovering, port cargo, domestic aviation traffic up- expected to pick up in upcoming festive months ImageImage
Steel sector rebounding in August with power consumption growing at an encouraging 4.6 per cent YoY ImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Sep 18, 2020
What’s the macro-economic outlook for the second quarter of 2020 as India unlocks? Are we also unlocking behaviorally?
Check out our latest Macroeconomics of COVID-19 in India series with @tulsipriya_rk.
Q2 poised to return to economic normalcy. ImageImageImage
Record Kharif sowing and healthy monsoon augurs well for robust kharif harvest and ensuing rural demand. Continuous MGNREGA employment boost critical for sustaining rural demand and dampening uncertainty and also in assisting migrant’s rural-urban migration mental decision making ImageImage
Engines of industrial activity unlocking quickly. Services, having endured a disproportionate Covid impact, given their greater dependence on physical interaction and informality, may take relatively longer to return to baseline. ImageImageImageImage
Read 15 tweets
Sep 5, 2020
Did we witness an August welcome for Indian economic recovery in Q2 after unrivalled despondency in Q1?
Check out the latest edition of our Macroeconomics of COVID in India series with @tulsipriya_rk
Industrial production, the growth engine, climbing up to recovery. Image
Agriculture- the persistent bright spot. Record kharif area sown, healthy live storage, sustained momentum in procurement and off-take operations by FCI and states @tulsipriya_rk ImageImage
Strengthening prospects of rural demand-rising sales of commercial and Agri tractors, passenger vehicle sales grow to highest level in July since March, inching very, sales of small cars, two wheelers and SUVs pick up @tulsipriya_rk ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Aug 20, 2020
Debilitating uncertainty effects of July lockdowns and monsoons leveled off recovery in first fortnight of August. Check out our latest edition of Macroeconomics of India Series with @tulsipriya_rk #macroIndiaupdate #EconTwitter
31 states have received normal or excess rainfall Image
Air quality index as on 14th August indicated further improvement in majority of cities compared to pre-COVID levels. @tulsipriya_rk Image
Healthy monsoons continued to boost Kharif sowing area and water reservoir levels in the fortnight gone by. Image
Read 19 tweets

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