Profile picture
, 5 tweets, 6 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
#COVID spreads through human-to-human transmission, so #migrants are an important vector. In the absence of adequate covid tests in LMICs, can we predict sub-national COVID spread, or identify likely hotspots using data on migration?

Short answer: Yes.
yrise.yale.edu/using-migratio…
Data on airport returnees predict subsequent quarantines & #COVID19 distress calls across districts in #Bangladesh. Data on migration permits predict confirmed cases in #Philippines municipalities and Bangladeshi sub-districts.
Beyond the validation using public health data, our recent phone surveys across Bangladesh helps to ground-truth this approach:
Living in communities with recent #migrant returnees triples the odds (!) of reporting #COVID symptoms. This is the single largest risk factor.
We provide a proof of concept to create sub-national #COVID heat maps, that can inform aid targeting, or the design of #zoning, #reopening & smart containment policies. Approach can be applied to any #LMIC that has #LSMS-style @worldbankdata. Or to identify high-risk countries
All 5 authors from 🇧🇩, produced this for 🇧🇩 policymakers: @rnahsan_eco, @Kazixiqbal, @mahreen06, @Abu_Shonchoy.

@YaleRISE happy to help other LMICs create these sub-national heat maps for designing zoning policies & smart containment strategies, if that is of use.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#COVID #migrants #COVID19 #Bangladesh #Philippines #migrant #zoning #reopening #LMIC #LSMS

More from @mushfiq_econ see all

Profile picture
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
@mushfiq_econ
Nearly a million #Rohingya refugees reside in densely packed camps in Coxbazar, Bangladesh. We conducted surveys of representative samples of refugees and Bangladeshi hosts living near camps after #COVID19 crisis hit. Alarming findings out in @WHOBulletin: who.int/bulletin/onlin…
Both hosts and refugees face significant economic distress.
59% of hosts and 72% of refugees unable to buy essential items.
Sharp decrease in employment: 76% of males in host communities were employed in July 2019, but only 21% today.
Coauthors: Paula Lopez-Pena @caustindavis
25% of Rohingyas and 13% of hosts report at least one COVID symptom (defined as per WHO guidelines).
Many are high-risk w/ underlying disease.
Economic vulnerability doubles the odds of COVID symptoms.
Living in communities with recent migrant returnees triples the odds.
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
@mushfiq_econ
A @dawn_com op-ed accuses me of valuing #Pakistani lives less than American lives because our paper (foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/10/poo…) uses VSL. The following 3 tweets explain in plain English (as the writer requests) why this is a gross misrepresentation.
Richer people can afford to stay at home. Both this journalist and I can work from home, and even if not, we're willing to sacrifice our economic livelihoods to avoid the risk of contracting COVID. Because even with pay-cuts, we can still easily put food on the table
A poor day-wage laborer in Pakistan, in contrast, is willing to forego less of his economic livelihood, because staying at home in a shutdown means that his family may not have enough to eat.
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
@mushfiq_econ
You've heard about the Econ Nobelists’ contributions, but I’d like to share anecdotes on the personal impact that the trio have had on so many. Their humanity should not get overshadowed by their brilliance. They are excellent humans, first and foremost. vox.com/future-perfect…
In 2001 I was in the UMD Ph.D. program which had no faculty listing “development econ” as their primary field. I had no exposure to modern devo. #AbhijitBanerjee stopped by my poster at a @WIDER conf in Helsinki, and politely, gently explained that what I was doing was not great.
That was the most important 20 minutes of my Ph.D. educ. This is taking nothing away from my incredibly supportive PhD advisors who were in other fields

Abhijit and I were on same flight back, and he came back to Economy class to sit with me for an hour to chat! I learnt a lot
Read 9 tweets

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!