Thread by @adeladawy

So @_AfricanUnion negotiations have NOT been fruitful. #Egypt & #Sudan will NOT jeopardize the lives of millions & will never allow for the Turkish Ilısu Dam scenario to reoccur. #UN Security Council role will be crucial, but will it adopt an arbitrary role? 1/

#Ethiopia’s unilateral filling of #GERD without an agreement is a serious violation to its international legal obligations. #Sudan & #Egypt would interpret it as an act of war, making any diplomatic solution even harder to reach & comprehensive agreement more complicated. 2/

According to UN Charter Article 51, #Sudan & #Egypt will have the legitimate right of self-defence to safeguard the lives of millions of people. This is of course if #Ethiopia decides to fill #GERD without an agreement & violate its international legal obligations. 3/

All options are on the table, even military action. #Egypt and #Sudan together with its international coalition of partners are more than ready & highly capable to intervene. Although, I know they would prefer not to let the situation escalate to reach that point. 4/

Israel’s Spyder Air Defense System protects #GERD but #Egypt is capable to safeguard its national interests. Also #Ethiopia’s military capacity is very limited plus most of its heavy equipment & most experienced officers remain far away in Tigray Region. 5/

#Ethiopia’s military cohesion is weak with internal tensions. Recent coup attempt & assassination of the chief of staff of the Ethiopian army, Gen Seare Mekonnen demonstrates internal frictions & @AbiyAhmedAli’s political vulnerability & weak control over the state. 6/

Nevertheless, I remain convinced that a political solution ought to be the way forward. It is the best way for a win-win scenario for all. Let us hope the #UNSC can play a constructive role in this regard to preserve international peace and security. -END-