Some quick analysis on KJU & his latest politburo meeting on #COVID19 yesterday because this is not just about #NorthKorea reporting a potential outbreak for the first time, as significant & newsworthy as that is. 
Background: Despite sharing a long border with China, #NorthKorea claims it does not have a single confirmed case of #COVID19, which is hard to believe. But without access, we have no way right now of knowing the truth, and I think we need to be skeptical of all info from #DPRK.
What I do see: KJU has been using fear of the #COVID19 pandemic as a way to rally his people against this outside threat. It’s part of a domestic political campaign to win the people’s loyalty after the disappointments of 2019. I wrote about this in Feb: wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/coro…
Apart from the obvious concerns over the potential spread of #COVID19 in #NorthKorea, I also consider the propaganda/political messaging. And there are multiple benefits for for KJU in pinning a possible first case on a “runaway” (ie defector) coming back from #SouthKorea.
Because he has turned the fight vs #COVID19 in a personal campaign, #KimJongUn has to find a face-saving way to acknowledge any current/future outbreaks. #NorthKorea
By pinning a potential outbreak on someone coming from #SouthKore #KJU is not only setting the stage to blame any future infections on Seoul but also to wrest more concessions from the Moon govt.
On positive note, this could present a window of opportunity if handled well.
On positive note, this could present a window of opportunity if handled well.
#KimJongUn will also use this case as a warning to his people about what happens if they defect to #SouthKorea: They will be infected with this “vicious virus.”
I examined the propaganda around defections in this @KoreaEconInst paper: keia.org/sites/default/…
I examined the propaganda around defections in this @KoreaEconInst paper: keia.org/sites/default/…
And now, KJU can justify the tightening of already suffocating security protocols inside #NorthKorea as well as at. Passages like this give me the chills. Citizens already have no freedom of movement. #KCNA
... and I shudder to think what "severe punishment" awaits the soldiers who will become scapegoats following the investigation under way in #NorthKorea. This sends a message to all North Koreans who do whatever they can, including offering bribes, to sneak past security.
