Thread by @ArkadiuszLegiec

More and more rumours on #mercenaries, fighting on the side of #Azerbaijan in the current escalation over #NagornoKarabakh are coming out. There are #Turkmens from #Syria, brought to #Azerbaijan thanks to help of #Turkey. Let`s sum up some decontextualised facts. #THREAD 1/13

I mentioned this information on Sunday in that Thread:

https://twitter.com/ArkadiuszLegiec/status/1310222593111273474

, after seeing a video showing masked fighters, going on the top of their pick-ups to the front, to fight against Armenians and shouting “Allah Akbar”. 2/13

The credibility of this info has been confirmed – their uniforms, equipment, spoken language etc. A little bit later @Reuters spoke with two of them: reuters.com/article/us-arm…, even gathering info about their salary (1500$/mounth) 3/13

We shouldn`t been shocked because of two factors: 1. Foreign Fighters and Mercenaries has already been present in this conflict from the beginning. 2. Turkey, which in this case is “supplying fighters” for #Azerbaijan used it as a policy tools in different parts of the world 4/13

1. Conflict over disputed area of #NagornoKarabakh, lasting from late 80s, already experienced influx of foreign fighters and mercenaries on both sides. It was especially intensive in the initial period of war, but also happening later. What do we know in this matter? 5/13

The table also do not concern members of Armenian and Azeri diasporas, especially all around the Middle East (especially Armenians from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria; Azeris from Iran etc.) and Post-Soviet Area. 6/13

2. Turkey already used foreign fighters inflows and mercenaries as a substitute form of its military engagement, blurring responsibility etc. in conflicts like #Syria (both consciously and “unconsciously”) and also #Libya (link below). If you know more cases – let me know. 7/13

rferl.org/a/pentagon-tur…

The issue I'm waiting for, which is only a matter of time, is Russian engagement via its proxies (maybe not foreign fighters, but mercenaries and Private Military Groups, as Wagner Group) in this escalation between #Armenia and #Azerbaijan. 8/13

Why? Russia and Armenia share allied commitments (#CSTO, common air defense, 2 Russian military bases in Armenia etc.), but they are limited only to the territory of Armenia – in Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian forces needs to rely on themselves. 9/13

But in the same time Russia is not interested in ending up this conflict – both via peaceful means (we already know it), and military once. In a situation when Azerbaijan mobilized the largest attack on Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh since the 1990s, that means. 10/13

If Azerbaijan would gain strategic advantage, Russia will need to support Armenians outside of Armenian territory - in Nagorno Karabakh - to prevent Azerbaijan from gaining too many advantages (status quo in this conflict is a core for Russian policy in this region). 11/13

In such a case PMCs are perfect solution, already used and tested by Russia in #Ukraine, #Syria, #Iraq, #Libya, couple of African countries etc. Already some reports says, that Wagner Group is on a high degree of readiness to join this conflict. 12/13

So far fighters and mercenaries are not making a difference for the trajectories of this conflict, but there are substantial part of it. If the dynamics will change to any side`s advantage, and external actors decide to engage stronger, this issue will develop. 13/13 END