Cited "Energy Economist" starts work with a faulty assumption that BC will not need more electricity and will have access to infinite supplies of cheap imported electricity which runs exactly contrary to every major analysis of electricity demand under climate change #bcpoli
His early line: "In the most likely case, Site C’s output will be surplus to needs in British Columbia." Gives the game away. Every major scenario involving transition to EVs/moving off natural gas for heating/hot water calls for a massive increase in electricity demand #bcpoli
Every major analysis of the US market shows a significant tightening of supply especially in places like California where the absence of dispatchables/storage results in massive swings in electricity availability/price. Look at the rolling black-outs this summer #bcpoli
It is fine to look at #SiteC and suggest that engineering faults etc... may result in cost overruns, but to base your arguments on a world where we do not transition off fossil fuels and electricity demand does not do up is simply unfathomable. #bcpoli
To pretend that BC will be able to simply dip into a vast and cheap market in the US given the actual predictions about the US market and our lack of robust interties is simply not consistent with what every other analysis is saying. #bcpoli
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A quick thread on common misperceptions/misinformation about the cost of energy when discussing the #SiteC project.
A lot of people rely on analyses based on Lazard's levelized cost of energy (“LCOE”) for wind and solar or for wind and solar with storage #bcpoli@MikeSmythNews
The LCOE approach is based on best-case scenarios where the actual resource is plentiful and access to that resource is easy...that is exactly the opposite of the situation for these technologies in BC #bcpoli
In the piece Mr. Hughes discusses the difference in price between heavy oil in the Gulf and Heavy oil in Asia to argue the @TransMtn is not useful. Except Alberta can't get its oil in volume to the Gulf Coast either #bcpoli#cdnpoli#canpoli#GPC#NOpipeline 2/
So the price comparison is totally irrelevant, he may as well be comparing the price of Alberta oil to the price of apples. What matters is what Alberta is getting for its oil at Hardisty. Compare that to the Asian price #bcpoli#cdnpoli#canpoli#GPC#NOpipeline 3/
The authors of the report (an NGO that opposes LNG by the way) claim that #BCLNG is "worse than coal" becasue of fugitive emissions. This claim is simply not true and is an example of depending on one narrative-friendly study to make your argument #bcpoli#cdnpoli 2/
In this case the authors rely on a single study in Science by Alvarez et al science.sciencemag.org/content/361/63… that calculated that 2.3% of US production of LNG was lost in the form of fugitive emissions which wipes out the savings in using LNG for power #bcpoli#cdnpoli 3/
As we all know BC uses about 192,000 barrels per day of refined fuel with Prkland providing about 33% of our gas and 30% of the jet fuel. The #Transmountain supplies most of the remaining refined fuel but it cannot supply everything we need #bcpoli#vanpoli
As a consequence we import about 30,000 bpd from the Americans. This number is from the Canadian Fuels Association and is corroborated by the US EIA. According to the EIA #bpoli#vanpoli 3/
On #ClimateStrike day some thoughts from a pragmatic environmentalist.
One of my big concerns with the climate strike is that it is being driven by people who ignore the complexity of the energy debate and instead talk about simple answers to complex problems. #bcpoli#abpoli 1/
I keep listening to the demands of the Climate Strikers and it is all about stopping all fossil fuel use now and blaming the previous generations for the conditions of the present. Well that approach ignores the realities of our era #bcpoli#abpol 2/
We currently have a transportation (and thus food supply) system that is utterly dependent on fossil fuels and will be for 20+ years. So we need to figure out how to address non-transportation uses while we innovate in transportation uses. #bcpoli#abpoli 3/
heavy crude is a fungible commodity and blocking #TMX will do nothing to affect oil demand all it will do is move demand to suppliers with lower environmental standards and higher per barrel GHG emissions #bcpoli#cdnpoli 1/
When activists say it is about protecting the Southern Resident Killer Whales, remember the #NEB was not allowed to consider how the #TMX reduces threats to the SRKWs from the American side of the border achemistinlangley.net/2018/09/01/on-…#bcpoli#transmountain 2/
What does getting the number of tankers in US waters down mean to the SRKWs? It might improve access to feeding grounds by restoring Rosario Strait to their habitat. Currently they avoid that area, likely due to US tankers achemistinlangley.net/2018/09/27/mor…#bcpoli#transmountain 3/