Thread by @BlairKing_ca

A quick thread on common misperceptions/misinformation about the cost of energy when discussing the #SiteC project.

A lot of people rely on analyses based on Lazard's levelized cost of energy (“LCOE”) for wind and solar or for wind and solar with storage #bcpoli @MikeSmythNews

This is what the good folks at the @CDHoweInstitute

https://twitter.com/CDHoweInstitute/status/1315981327368413185?s=20

and what Mr. McCullough does in his infamous report on #SiteC

There is a significant problem with this approach that seems to be missed by these analysts @keithbaldrey @jjhorgan @SoniaFurstenau

The LCOE approach is based on best-case scenarios where the actual resource is plentiful and access to that resource is easy...that is exactly the opposite of the situation for these technologies in BC #bcpoli

A quick analogy: imagine that you were looking for food and were told that fishing gear was cheap. That doesn't then imply that you can feed your community from the local pond. That gear might be cheap but there aren't enough fish in that pond to feed the community #bcpoli

In BC a solar panel may be cheap but solar insolation is simply not on our side. The same is true for wind. The sun doesn't shine bright enough nor does the wind blow hard enough where the demand actually exists. Look at where the wind is strongest #bcpoli #SiteC

The best wind resource is on the northwest coast and in the hills in the Peace, these are almost the only places where a wind farm would generate enough energy to be a viable investment...and to make that energy useful it needs to be moved. #bcpoli #SiteC

There are no transmission links to the northwest coast and even in the Peace where the links exist, they don't go to the tops of the hills where the wind resource exists. In order to be viable those links have to be built...that cost is not included in the default LCOE #bcpoli

So it may be true that a solar plant in California can operate at high capacity at the cost of the Lazard LCOE but a solar plant in Prince Rupert will not and there isn't enough sun there for it to be viable either. #bcpoli

So when Mr. McCullough says that we should simply look at the cost of solar at an ideal site in California or at a wind farm in Utah next to a highway, you need to put on your BC glasses and ask yourself if this translates to the geography of BC #bcpoli #siteC @nbennett_biv

When you figure out what the replacement cost for this electricity will cost, don't just use a number from near a major railway in the US. Think of the cost to build on a plateau in the Peace and then include the costs of the transmission lines to connect it to our grid #bcpoli

Because the cost of #SiteC includes the costs to build those transmission lines. It includes all the upgrades to the grid. It includes the costs of the new roads and highways and all that other infrastructure not included in Lazard's LCOE #bcpoli

The reality is that once you eliminate hydro, BC does not have a surplus of generating capacity for renewables. It is simply not sunny enough over a large enough area and it is not windy enough near to our transmission capacity. #bcpoli

I know it is easy to pretend this is a simple choice, but it really isn't. It is hard and before you listen to an activist who makes claims otherwise ask them where they will site their wind turbines and where they will put a gigawatt of solar generating capacity. #bcpoli

You will quickly discover that they haven't really considered the nuts and bolts of this challenge. They have simply looked at the idealized numbers produced by Lazard and said "wouldn't that look nice here"

But we don't live in an ideal world #bcpoli #SiteC

Instead we live in one of the most beautiful places on the planet, but that place is full of mountains, and rivers and lakes and rocky shores and stormy oceans and none of that is accounted for by Lazard which is why those numbers make no sense for BC #bcpoli #siteC

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