Blair King Profile picture
An Environmental Scientist looking for the sweet spot - positive environmental policies that can be implemented in the real world, not simply flights of fancy.
10 Mar 20
A reminder, heavy crude and light crude occupy different niches in the global market and outside our bottle-necked supply chain, heavy oil has mostly maintained its price point while light crude has spiraled. This makes a stronger case for #TransMountain #bcpoli #cdnpoli
Right now MAYA (a heavy crude chemically similar to WCS) is trading at almost $8/barrel higher that WTI while WCS is less than half the MAYA price.

Were #transmountain completed and shipping, those Alberta barrels would be worth over twice their current price. #bcpoli #canpoli

MAYA is $41.16
WCS is $15.73

Difference $25.43

Line 2 of @TransMtn would carry 540,000 b/d

That is $13,732,200 of additional value lost TODAY!!!!

or $5 Billion per year!!!!

That is $5 Billion not generating royalties or value
#bcpoli #abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli
Read 3 tweets
7 Jul 19
The thing to recognize when dealing with the anti-#transmountain people is that they love the bait and switch argument. This piece by David Hughes and promoted by @ElizabethMay is a classic example… #bcpoli #cdnpoli #canpoli @sjmuir #GPC #NOpipeline 1/
In the piece Mr. Hughes discusses the difference in price between heavy oil in the Gulf and Heavy oil in Asia to argue the @TransMtn is not useful. Except Alberta can't get its oil in volume to the Gulf Coast either #bcpoli #cdnpoli #canpoli #GPC #NOpipeline 2/
So the price comparison is totally irrelevant, he may as well be comparing the price of Alberta oil to the price of apples. What matters is what Alberta is getting for its oil at Hardisty. Compare that to the Asian price #bcpoli #cdnpoli #canpoli #GPC #NOpipeline 3/
Read 9 tweets
3 Jul 19
Time for a thread on the new "The New Gas Boom" report I have seen on virtually every media platfrom from @GlobalBC to @CBCNews

The interviews I see about this report all repeat a "factoid" about #bclng that needs to be addressed #bcpoli #cdnpoli @lngcanada @nbennett_biv
The authors of the report (an NGO that opposes LNG by the way) claim that #BCLNG is "worse than coal" becasue of fugitive emissions. This claim is simply not true and is an example of depending on one narrative-friendly study to make your argument #bcpoli #cdnpoli 2/
In this case the authors rely on a single study in Science by Alvarez et al… that calculated that 2.3% of US production of LNG was lost in the form of fugitive emissions which wipes out the savings in using LNG for power #bcpoli #cdnpoli 3/
Read 14 tweets
27 Apr 19
To address the spate of let's call it "interesting" analysis about gas prices in BC from @MarcLeeCCPA a quick thread about the refined fuel situation on the coast and #transmountain's effects on gas prices @keithbaldrey @robynallan #bcpoli #vanpoli @sjmuir @nbennett_biv 1/
As we all know BC uses about 192,000 barrels per day of refined fuel with Prkland providing about 33% of our gas and 30% of the jet fuel. The #Transmountain supplies most of the remaining refined fuel but it cannot supply everything we need #bcpoli #vanpoli
As a consequence we import about 30,000 bpd from the Americans. This number is from the Canadian Fuels Association and is corroborated by the US EIA. According to the EIA #bpoli #vanpoli 3/
Read 17 tweets
15 Mar 19
On #ClimateStrike day some thoughts from a pragmatic environmentalist.

One of my big concerns with the climate strike is that it is being driven by people who ignore the complexity of the energy debate and instead talk about simple answers to complex problems. #bcpoli #abpoli 1/
I keep listening to the demands of the Climate Strikers and it is all about stopping all fossil fuel use now and blaming the previous generations for the conditions of the present. Well that approach ignores the realities of our era #bcpoli #abpol 2/
We currently have a transportation (and thus food supply) system that is utterly dependent on fossil fuels and will be for 20+ years. So we need to figure out how to address non-transportation uses while we innovate in transportation uses. #bcpoli #abpoli 3/
Read 18 tweets
24 Feb 19
A thread about common myths about the #transmountain:

heavy crude is a fungible commodity and blocking #TMX will do nothing to affect oil demand all it will do is move demand to suppliers with lower environmental standards and higher per barrel GHG emissions #bcpoli #cdnpoli 1/
When activists say it is about protecting the Southern Resident Killer Whales, remember the #NEB was not allowed to consider how the #TMX reduces threats to the SRKWs from the American side of the border… #bcpoli #transmountain 2/
What does getting the number of tankers in US waters down mean to the SRKWs? It might improve access to feeding grounds by restoring Rosario Strait to their habitat. Currently they avoid that area, likely due to US tankers… #bcpoli #transmountain 3/
Read 8 tweets
14 Feb 19
On the not so shocking revelations in the @bchydro IPP review.

Honestly folks we all told you the fight against #ClimateChange was not going to be cheap… #bcpoli @nbennett_biv @richardzussman @MikeSmythNews @Mike_A_Bernier #renewables @Bernardo1130
Alt title: How is it possible that a review of green energy policy completely omitted the reason for the policy #ClimateChange and what has happened in every other jurisdiction where they tried to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels? @keithbaldrey #bcpoli #renewables
Alt alt title: If you demand that we do what it takes to fight #ClimateChange then you shouldn't really complain when you discover that the cost of doing something is a lot higher than the price of doing nothing. @jjhorgan @Wilkinson4BC @AJWVictoriaBC #bcpoli @BCLiberalCaucus
Read 6 tweets
28 Jan 19
If journalists want to understand what frustrates environmental scientists nothing better demonstrates what is troubling than the news story I have seen re-tweeted numerous times today. It typifies what is wrong with environmental journalism. #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpol @sjmuir
Here is the story it addresses a complaint about river crossing work conducted on the #transmountain pipeline. It starts with an overwrought headline: "Trans Mountain pipeline work destroyed salmon habitat, scientist says"… #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpol 2/
Pardon me @theprovince the same story appeared in the @globeandmail and other media outlets.

Now let's see what the story entails: approximately 17 m of river affected in an aquifer system that includes literally thousands of kilometers of river area. #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpol 3/
Read 11 tweets
25 Jan 19
Honestly, I have no time for the people who keep attacking @FairQuestions for her work uncovering the financing behind the campaigns against Alberta oil. She did the work on her own dime and more importantly has the paper trail to support her claims. #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli 1/
The funniest ones are the ones who argue that she has not made a case that the money really made anything happen. This argument assumes that the American donors to these programs are idiots. To understand follow my logic #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli 2/
Vivian has presented documents from the original funding bodies that indicated that their overall goal was to land-lock Alberta oil. This is not really up for debate all the original documents are presented on Vivian's web site #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli 3/
Read 9 tweets
10 Jan 19
I think in light of repeated Twitter conversations about #BCLNG, #bitumen in BC. I think it is time for a thread explaining some basic information that may not be understood in the general about the use of coal in China #bcpoli #cdnpoli @nbennett_biv @TerryGlavin @keithbaldrey 1/
China has a massive need for fossil fuels for energy use as well as in their chemical and production chains. Because China does not have large reserves of nat. gas or oil they end up using coal as a generic replacement #bcpoli #cdnpoli @nbennett_biv @TerryGlavin @keithbaldrey 2/
We all know that China uses a lot of coal to generate electricity. They o this even though they are also installing a tremendous amount of renewables. This is because renewables need back-up and coal serves that role #bcpoli #cdnpoli @nbennett_biv @TerryGlavin @keithbaldrey 3/
Read 11 tweets
19 Dec 18
A simple question for @singingwithin and @WCELaw

Why are you not suggesting Climate Accountability letters to every car maker out there.

They have a more direct responsibility for our burning fossil fuels and have aggressively advertised its use for decades? #bcpoli #abpoli
Your Climate Accountability project seems a bit off-target. It ignores the companies that have done the most to encourage use of fossil fuels and removes agency from consumers, the people who actually generated the emissions. @nbennett_biv @singingwithin @wcel #bcpoli #abpoli 2/
A logically consistent program would be going after car manufacturers who aren't building enough ICE vehicles; the airline industry and the tourism industry since they both advertise heavily encouraging wasteful emissions @nbennett_biv @singingwithin @wcel #bcpoli #abpoli 3/
Read 8 tweets
22 Aug 18
@ghoberg Fascinated by the language, content and references in this syllabus. It almost appears like it is designed to elicit a specific response from the students. It is interesting what information is missing and which references were chosen to represent the info. 1/
@ghoberg Let's start with the activist's favourite starting point. Any document that starts introduces the project with the term "Texas-based oil and gas company" bound to have issues. 2/
@ghoberg Then introducing the project you somehow forget to note that Line 1 is intended to supply refined fuels and light crudes, instead implying that it will be used in the same way as it was when there was only 1 line. 3/
Read 8 tweets
31 Jul 18
Scientists are supposed to get the science right in articles like this. Yet this piece misinforms about the relative effect on the boreal forest; on the toxicity of dilbit; on spill response; and on shipping and processing. #bcpoli #cdnpoli #abpoli @sjmuir 1/
The article implies that mining is a risk to the Boreal Forest. The area it is technically possible to mine oil sands represents less than 0.02% of the Canadian Boreal forest, less that 0.01% is being mined. More area burns most years than is mined #bcpoli #cdnpoli #abpoli 2/
The article gets the chemistry of dlibit completely wrong. Dilbit has much less benzene than a typical light crude oil and diluent is almost entirely aliphatic in nature. Don't get me started on her use of the word "tar" #bcpoli #cdnpoli #abpoli 3/
Read 7 tweets
20 Jun 18
The real problem with the @TransMtn file is that the people involved have allowed themselves to be misinformed on so many levels This Guardian piece is the result of years of misinformation piled up on itself. It is hard to fight this type of message #bcpoli #abpoli @keithbaldrey
Diluted bitumen is not the most toxic type of oil, an analysis of the relative risks of the alternatives to the TMX (yes we do have to consider the alternatives) mean much higher risk to the Salish Sea, but we don't hear that because that is not the story the activists tell 2/
The activists pretend that if they stop the pipeline then magically all fossil fuels will stop. But the Puget Sound and BC will still need fuels and they will be coming in less safe means because they won't have the new NEB requirements 3/
Read 9 tweets
17 May 18
Amused last night to be informed that:

"I just think you suffer from reductionist thinking"

As a practitioner in the natural sciences that is like being told you "suffer from being too attractive and too popular". As insults go it is one I can wear #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli 1/
In the field of energy and pipelines thinking in a reductionist style means recognizing that we will still need ambulances and firetrucks in any energy future so any solution I come up with needs to include those types of services #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli 2/
Being a reductionist (and a pragmatist) means acknowledging that sometimes you have to make the best of a number of imperfect choices because choosing not to make a choice is actually a choice, a choice to do nothing #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli 3/
Read 22 tweets
16 May 18
I find the most frustrating thing about talking to activists is that since none of them have any reasonable education in the field of environmental science/history that we don't have a common baseline for a reasonable dialogue 1/ #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli
These film students and political scientists don't understand the language of toxicity, they have no grounding in empirical science and have no understanding of what we have learned from the past. They imagine they are the first to have had ideas 2/ #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli
We advance science and other empirical fields by incremental advances in the knowledge-base. We build on ideas and research carried out in the past. This knowledge-base is passed on through environmental education 3/ #bcpoli #abpoli #cdnpoli
Read 11 tweets
11 Apr 18
Listened to @AJWVictoriaBC on the @CBCStephenQuinn and the number of errors he made was stunning. Alberta oils aren't even the dirtiest oil in North America that comes from California (Placerita oil field). The dirtiest oil in world is Nigerian (Bass oil field) #bcpoli #abpoli 1/
He keeps harping back to the RSC report but it is almost as if he hasn't read that report because it doesn't say what he keeps claiming it does… #bcpoli #abpoli 2/
He keeps claiming that diluted bitumen is "not oil". That is simply wrong. Certainty bitumen is an unconventional oil but by every definition under the sun it is a type of crude oil. I'm not sure why he keeps making such a demonstrably wrong statement. #bcpoli #abpoli 3/
Read 7 tweets