It is infuriating how the false narrative that Canada faced a "debt crisis" in the 1990s has been repeated so often by fiscal conservatives, it is now reported as fact--even by platforms that should know better (eg. @CBCNewscbc.ca/news/politics/…). ...2
The phony claim of a looming "debt wall" was invoked to justify the huge retrenchment of EI & other social programs, most dramatically in the 1995 budget, impoverishing hundreds of thousands. The sustained failure of EI ever since is why govt had to invent CERB in this crisis...3
Lo and behold, the fed budget was miraculously balanced just 2 years later (in 1997, years ahead of "schedule"). No debt crisis occurred, or would have. I reviewed this phony history in 2003 for @ccpa, worth reading again to contest this false history policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/… ...4
Both the GFC in 2008-09 & the current pandemic have confirmed national govts can mobilize huge resources to pay for priorities they deem deserving. EI, social transfers to provinces, and other social spending were not deemed worthy, so the govt *chose* to cut them in '95...5
The cuts were not necessitated by a "debt crisis." Rather, they *caused* a crisis: for those who lost essential income supports & services, which could have been maintained via a more balanced deficit-reduction strategy (such as enunciated by the Alternative Federal Budget) ...6
Please stop referring to this important and painful episode in Canadian fiscal & political history as a "debt crisis." It was nothing of the sort; that language merely helps set the stage for a new incarnation of austerity that conservatives want to see, deficit or no deficit.
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Some thoughts on BC Liberal plan to eliminate PST for 1 year, and cut it by 4 points (57%) after that:
The 2020 budget says PST would raise $7.9b this fiscal year, rising to $8.6b by 2022. So the Liberals' costing seems too low. #bcpoli ...2
They say their plan would cost $6.9b in year 1, $4b after. Seems like it would be more like $8b in year 1 (depending when it starts), $4.5-5b/year after that. So they are low-balling the fiscal implications of this very expensive idea. ...3
In year 1, their plan would thus increase the (already-record-high) provincial deficit by over half: from projected $13b to something like $21b. I am not averse to larger deficits to spur post-COVID reconstruction, but we need to be sure we're spending the funds well. ...4
If actions match these words, this #SFT will be a historic step forward in Canadian social policy in several key areas: childcare, disability GIS, pharmacare, and a new EI system. All ambitious, and necessary. #BuildBackBetter#cdnpoli ...2
Somewhat reminiscent of Pearson's minority governments in the mid-60s, which brought in CPP, medicare, and the Canada Assistance Plan. Minority government can work well! ...3
Conservatives' predictable rant on deficits & debt will go nowhere, esp. as Canadians are losing sleep over COVD 2nd wave & continuing recession (not debt bogeymen). And CPC won't whisper about what they'd cut for a smaller deficit: they know that would be the end of them. #SFT
Absolutely brutal #CPI number out from #ABS today: prices fell 1.9% in June quarter. That's deflation at an annualized rate of 7.3%--by far the biggest price decline in Aussie postwar history. Inflation was too close to 0 *before* #COVID19, so there's no room to maneuver now...2
In case anyone thinks falling prices is somehow 'good' for consumers, keep in mind:
* Consumers stop buying (waiting for still lower prices).
* Real burden of debts grows .
* Investment is chilled by fear of falling nominal revenues.
Deflation is what happens in a depression ...3
Regarding the fear that big govt deficits and RBA bond-buying raises a big risk of hyper-inflation, keep in mind:
* We need more inflation, not less.
* Inflation will help reduce real burden of COVID deficits.
* RBA has undershot its CPI target for 6 straight years. ...4
A THREAD with some thoughts on today's 🇨🇦 Labour Force report. The headline growth in jobs (almost 1 million) was very encouraging, much better than expected. By that measure, we've climbed almost halfway back out of the hole we fell into Feb-April. #cdnecon@CntrFutureWork ..2
But the next steps of job recovery will be much harder to achieve. The share of unemployed expecting to go back to their former jobs is way down (just 1/3 now). And I expect a wave of 2nd-order layoffs as companies permanently downsize because their market isn't coming back..3
Recent examples of that include Bombardier and VIA Rail. The official unemployment rate (12.7%) is still just the tip of the iceberg. Counting people nominally employed but not working, and those who've given up looking, a more realistic measure of unemployment is 21-22%. ..4
THREAD on #FWC minimum wage decision today. The FWC froze wages for 75% of award-dependent workers: 40% for 4 months (to Nov. 1), and 35% for 7 months (to Feb. 1). The other 25% of workers will get a wage increase on the normal date (July 1), but a small one (1.75%)...2
On a weighted-average basis (weighting for shares of workforce and portion of the year covered), this works out to a 1.16% increase in the average minimum wage for the 2020-21 financial year. That's the smallest since the full 1-year freeze in 2009 (following the GFC)...3
This decision will tilt the macroeconomic balance even further toward deflation: a major risk in a crisis such as now. The wage is the most important price in the economy: it anchors other nominal levels. The #RBA agrees inflation will likely turn negative in coming months...4
THREAD: Australia lost another 228,000 jobs in May. Employment is still falling (unlike US & Canada where some rebound occurred in May). Total job loss since February 838,000 (down 6.5%). Official unemployment rate up to 7.1%, but we know that's just the tip of the iceberg...2
There were 925,000 officially unemployed (didn't work, but available & looking). Falling labour participation since Feb represents another 640,000. And there's 1.5 million technically "employed" people who lost most or all of their hours. Realistically, unemployment is >20% ...3
Data confirms this is a feminised recession: women's employment down 7.4% since Feb, v. 5.6% for men. So why is Coalition govt so intent on cutting supports for women (like child care), while trumpeting male stimulus (like the idiotic home reno scheme)?...4